RTI Teams With PhD Student to Predict 2017 Season

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    Rocky Top Insider has once again teamed up with Sam Emmons, a current physics PhD student at Tennessee, to predict the most likely record for the Vols this upcoming season.

    Last year Sam used a customized computer algorithm to determine the most probable season record based on my, admittedly subjective, winning probability for each game. For a recap of how last season’s predictions went click here.

    Sponsored by the Nautical Boat Club of Knoxville!

    As for the 2017 season, the numbers may surprise you. First, let’s look at the winning probability we gave Sam for each game this season.

    vs Georgia Tech – 68%
    vs Indiana State – 97%
    at Florida – 48%
    vs UMass – 92%
    vs Georgia – 52%
    vs South Carolina – 55%
    at Alabama – 17%
    at Kentucky – 70%
    vs Southern Miss – 85%
    at Mizzou  – 68%
    vs LSU – 28%
    vs Vandy – 80%

    Again, these are admittedly subjective probabilities based on my personal opinion. But even small changes wouldn’t alter the overall record probability that much. However, if you read this and think I’m completely off my rocker for multiple games, then the overall win probability might look a little different. That being said, here’s the data for win probability based on the percentages I gave the Vols for each game in 2017.

    • 3 wins or less – < 1%
    • 4 wins – 1.2%
    • 5 wins – 5.2%
    • 6 wins – 13.7%
    • 7 wins – 23.7%
    • 8 wins – 26.8%
    • 9 wins – 19.1%
    • 10 wins – 8%
    • 11 wins – 1.7%
    • 12 wins – .14%

    Overall, the Vols would have nearly an 80% chance of winning at least 7 games or more and just under a 30% chance of winning 10 or more games. If this data is accurate, Tennessee fans may be looking at another TaxSlayer Bowl or possibly a Belk Bowl in their future.