Tennessee’s 2017 season has already gotten off to a rocky start. But if one predictive model comes true, the 2017 season will end even worst than it’s begun.
According to predictions from statistician Bill Connelly of SB Nation, the Vols are expected to only be favorites in two of their remaining six games in the 2017 season. Their chances of of finishing the season with five wins is essentially just as great as their odds of finishing with six wins according to his predictions.
By Connelly’s calculations, the Vols will actually be underdogs against Southern Miss when the Golden Eagles come to Knoxville on November 4th. Connelly’s predictive model gives Tennessee just a 41 percent chance of defeating Southern Miss, and it projects that the Golden Eagles will be four-point favorites in the contest.
Another fun @SBN_BillC stat:
Tennessee now projected to be 4 point dogs…
against Southern Miss…
in 2017. pic.twitter.com/iqiMWUigaq
— Will (@gyratestats) October 16, 2017
The only two games that Tennessee has a 50 percent chance or better of winning for the rest of the season are their match-ups against Missouri and Vanderbilt. Both those schools, just like Tennessee, are still winless in conference play.
Southern Miss is currently 4-2 on the year and just defeated UTEP 24-0 this past Saturday. The Golden Eagles gave Kentucky a scare to open the season but ultimately fell 24-17 to the Wildcats, and their only other loss was a 43-28 defeat at the hands of North Texas.
The Golden Eagles have a potent offense that ranks 39th nationally in terms of yards per game, and their defense is currently 20th in the nation when it comes to yards allowed per game.
Connelly’s projects give the Vols only a five percent chance of beating Alabama, a 48 percent chance of defeating Kentucky, and a 38 percent chance of taking down LSU. Tennessee hasn’t lost to Kentucky since 2011, and that was the first time the Vols had lost to the Wildcats since 1984.
The projections give the Vols a 32 percent chance of finishing the season with six wins and a 31 percent chance of finishing the season with five wins. Tennessee hasn’t finished a regular season with a losing record since 2013, Butch Jones’ first season as head coach of the Vols.