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Analyst Says Vols “Most Likely” SEC Team to Make Final Four

Photo credit: Anne Newman/RTI

Yesterday, we looked at what history and oddsmakers had to say about the Vols’ chances of making it to the Final Four. And now an esteemed national college basketball analyst has given his thoughts on Tennessee’s chances.

Ken Pomeroy, or more commonly known as “KenPom” to basketball fans, has been analyzing college basketball for decades. He has his own rating system and uses his data points to make predictions every March. And according to his calculations, the Vols are the SEC team most likely to make a run to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament.

There are eight SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament, and the Vols are the highest-seeded team from the conference as the No. 3 seed in the South region. And according to Pomeroy, the Vols have the best shot at making it to the Final Four of those eight teams. In his 2018 tournament probabilities, he gives Tennessee a 11.5 percent chance of making it to the Final Four. That’s good enough for the 12th-best percentage overall and the third-best in the South region of the bracket.

But Pomeroy isn’t the only one giving the Vols at least a fighter’s chance of making it to their first Final Four in school history.

According to the prediction algorithm at, the Vols have a 9.7 percent shot at advancing to the Final Four. According to their calculations, that gives Tennessee the fourth-best chance in the South region and the 13th-best shot overall.

Both Pomeroy and give Tennessee over a 50 percent chance of making it to at least the Sweet Sixteen, and both give the Vols over a 25 percent shot at making it to just their second Elite Eight in program history. Pomeroy gives the Vols a 5.5 percent chance of making it to the finals and a 2.2 percent shot at actually winning the title while PredictionMachine says Tennessee has a 3.8 percent likelihood of making it to the finals and just a 1.1 percent chance of winning the championship.

The Vols will play 14-seed Wright State on Thursday, March 15th at 12:40 PM Eastern time in Dallas, Texas. It will be Tennessee’s first game since their 77-72 loss to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament Final on Sunday.

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