Tennessee has fielded some excellent college football teams during the program’s 130-year history, and this year’s team could be one of the best. Fans were treated to one of the most memorable wins in school history last weekend when the Vols made a field goal at the final buzzer to beat Alabama and snap a 15-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide. Because they won, their odds of winning the SEC and the national championship at all of the online sportsbooks got shorter —and so did the Heisman Trophy odds for QB Hendon Hooker.
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Hendon Hooker Heisman Trophy Odds
Production is essential to any player’s Heisman resume; C.J. Stroud and Hendon Hooker have certainly done that this season. But to win, a player needs more than just stats. He needs to be the reason why his team wins the big game(s). After leading Tennessee to a win over Alabama last week, Hooker added a big win to his resume.
Consequently, his Heisman odds at Tennessee sportsbooks improved:
| TEAM | POINT SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | Over 43.5 (-110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Stroud is having an incredible season. Several players with odds longer than Hooker’s have also played well. However, there are a few things bettors should remember about Heisman Trophy winners:
- Preseason betting favorites rarely win. The only one to do so in the last decade was Oregon QB Marcus Mariota in 2014.
- There has only been one repeat winner; Ohio State running back Archie Griffin (1974 and 1975).
- A defensive player has never won. Michigan DB Charles Woodson did win in 1997, but he also returned kicks and played wide receiver.
- Only three wide receivers have won.
- Quarterbacks have won five of the last six and 18 since 2000.
- Four of the last five quarterbacks to win had preseason odds of +1000 or higher. Three had preseason odds of +3000 or higher
Bet On Hooker Before the Tennessee-Georgia Game
Hendon Hooker’s Heisman odds give him a 14.29-18.52% chance of winning, which is not encouraging when you consider Stroud’s odds give him a 50% chance of winning. But it means there is still a lot of value in betting on Hooker.
From a statistical perspective, the two quarterbacks are very similar. Both are completing about 70% of their passes this season. Hooker has thrown one interception; Stroud has three. But Stroud has thrown 24 touchdowns to 15 for Hooker. However, Hooker is also a threat to run the ball (59 carries for 287 yards and three touchdowns); Stroud is not.
But the scales start to tip in Hooker’s favor when you look at their respective schedules. Hooker has led Tennessee to wins over four ranked teams (No. 17 Pitt, No. 20 Florida, No. 25 LSU, and No. 3 Alabama). Before the regular season ends, he’ll have a chance to add two more—No. 19 Kentucky and No. 1 Georgia.
Early odds have Tennessee listed as 10-point underdogs against Georgia, but they were listed as 9-point dogs to Alabama.
What does all this mean? Hooker is more of a household name than he was a week ago after leading the Vols to a win last week against Alabama. However, he has more to prove since he is not as well-known of a commodity as Stroud. But if he leads the Vols to a win over No. 1 Georgia in a few weeks? The voters will have (or should have) a hard time turning a player away that has wins over two top-three teams.
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Betting Analysis
Stroud has had a great season, but his resume does not compare to Hooker’s. Yes, he has Hooker when it comes to touchdown passes, but when you play an easy schedule, you’ll have some insane stat lines. Hooker has had some easy games, but he’s also played some good teams. Stroud has not. While he will face a couple of ranked teams down the stretch, his resume will still not be as impressive as Hooker’s resume.
If Hooker can lead the Vols to a win over Georgia in a few weeks, he’ll probably become the new betting favorite. Beating a defense like the one the Bulldogs have will not be easy, but after watching Hooker take down the Bama defense, it is possible.
But even if Tennessee loses to Georgia, Hooker’s resume will have more big wins than Stroud’s. So, if you haven’t bet on Hooker to win the Heisman yet, you may want to do so soon. His odds are only going to get shorter.
Article contributed by Travis Pulver | Photo: Emma Corona/Tennessee Athletics
