Tennessee has fielded some excellent college football teams during the program’s 130-year history, and this year’s team could be one of the best. Not only are they in great shape to make the College Football Playoffs, but Hendon Hooker has continued to build an incredible Heisman Trophy resume.
After last weekend’s big win over Kentucky, Hooker’s Heisman Trophy odds got a lot shorter, short enough to make him the betting favorite at the top online sportsbooks.
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Hendon Hooker Heisman Trophy Odds
Production is essential to any player’s Heisman resume; C.J. Stroud and Hendon Hooker have certainly done that this season. But to win, a player needs more than just stats. He needs to be why his team wins the big game(s). After leading Tennessee to a win over Kentucky last week, Hooker added a sixth win over a ranked team to his resume.
As could be expected, his Heisman odds at Tennessee sportsbooks improved:
Hendon Hooker is the Heisman favorite for the first time at @CaesarsSports.
Hooker went from +200 to even-money (+100) this past weekend, while C.J. Stroud rose from -105 to +180.
The Tennessee quarterback had Heisman odds as high as +5000 during the season.
— Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer) October 31, 2022
| TEAM | POINT SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | Over 43.5 (-110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | Under 43.5 (-110) |
Hooker and Stroud are both having an incredible season. Several players with odds longer than both have also played well. However, there are a few things bettors should remember about Heisman Trophy winners:
- Preseason betting favorites rarely win. The only one to do so in the last decade was Oregon QB Marcus Mariota in 2014.
- There has only been one repeat winner; Ohio State running back Archie Griffin (1974 and 1975).
- A defensive player has never won. Michigan DB Charles Woodson did win in 1997, but he also returned kicks and played wide receiver.
- Only three wide receivers have won.
- Quarterbacks have won five of the last six and 18 since 2000.
- Four of the last five quarterbacks to win had preseason odds of +1000 or higher. Three had preseason odds of +3000 or higher
What does all this mean? The win over Alabama forced people to pay attention to Hooker. Rather than fold under pressure, he’s continued to lead the Vols to one victory after another. But while Heisman voters often forgive early-season losses and/or less-than-stellar games, late-season losses are not.
Does that mean the Heisman is on the line for Hooker this weekend when Tennessee takes on Georgia as an underdog? Not necessarily. He will still have a stellar resume even with a loss (as long as he plays well). But it will become harder for voters to go with him, especially if Stroud leads Ohio State to an undefeated regular season.
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Betting Analysis
Hendon Hooker’s Heisman odds give him a 50-52.38% chance of winning, which is pretty encouraging. But Stroud’s odds still give him a decent shot (33.33-36.36%).
From a statistical perspective, the two quarterbacks are very similar. Both are completing about 70 percent of their passes this season. Hooker has thrown one interception; Stroud has four. But Stroud has thrown 29 touchdowns to 21 for Hooker. However, Hooker is also a threat to run the ball (59 carries for 287 yards and three touchdowns); Stroud is not.
But the scales start to tip in Hooker’s favor when you look at their respective schedules. Hooker has led Tennessee to wins over four ranked teams (No. 17 Pitt, No. 20 Florida, No. 25 LSU, No. 3 Alabama, and No. 19 Kentucky). This weekend he’ll get a chance to add another if he can lead the Vols to a win over Georgia on the road.
Stroud has had a great season, but his resume does not compare to Hooker’s. His stat lines are insane, but generating stats against a relatively weak schedule is easy. To be fair, Hooker has had his share of gimmes, but he has also proven himself against several of the nation’s best teams.
Our Pick, Hendon Hooker: Even if Tennessee loses to Georgia, Hooker’s resume will have more big wins than Stroud’s. So, if you haven’t bet on him yet, you may want to do so soon. His odds will only get shorter after the Vols beat the Bulldogs.
Article contributed by Travis Pulver | Photo: Kate Luffman/Tennessee Athletics
