With Super Wild Card Weekend in the books, we’re turning our attention to the four games in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. If you’re looking to get in on the action but want to put your money down on something beyond spread, moneylines, and totals, player prop bets could be right up your alley.
Here are my favorite player prop bets for the NFL Divisional Playoffs.
Best NFL Player Props for the Divisional Round
Let’s take a look at each of the NFL games this weekend and find some intriguing player prop bets. As with any other bet, it’s always a good idea to check multiple online sportsbooks to find the best lines and odds before placing a bet. If you sign up for a new platform, be sure to take advantage of any sports betting promos and bonuses.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs — Saturday, Jan. 21, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 touchdown passes: (+108) on FanDuel Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes at plus odds? Yes, please.
The Jaguars come into this game ranking 11th in run DVOA but 30th in pass DVOA. When these two met in Week 10, Mahomes completed 26 of 35 passes for 331 yards and 4 scores. Of Mahomes’ 11 playoff appearances, he has thrown for 3 or more scores in seven of them. He also has 36 such regular season games, accounting for 45% of his career games.
The Jags allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game in the regular season and were tied for the 11th-most passing touchdowns allowed at 25. Considering seven of the passing offenses they faced were in the bottom half of the league, their touchdown number could be much higher. The Jags particularly struggled against running backs and tight ends which certainly doesn’t help their cause with Travis Kelce and Jerick McKinnon on the other side. The two combined for 21 receiving touchdowns this season, with McKinnon finding the endzone in six straight games to end the season.
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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles — Saturday, Jan. 21, 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Miles Sanders Over 65.5 rushing yards: (-125) on PointsBet
This one is pretty simple: the Giants have one of the worst rushing defenses and the Eagles have one of the best rushing offenses.
When these two division rivals met in Week 14, Philadelphia rushed for 253 yards, averaging over 8 yards per carry. Sanders accounted for 144 of those yards, averaging nearly 8.5 yards per clip,
On the season, the Giants are dead last in rush DVOA, have allowed the second-most yards per attempt, and are bottom five across adjusted line yards, stuff rank, second-level yards, and open field yards. New York was just one of four teams to allow more than 2,000 rushing yards to running backs during the regular season. The Giants also allowed running backs to clear this line 14 times this year, with four instances of 60-64 yards.
The Eagles will also be getting Lane Johnson back on the offensive line whose importance can’t be understated.
Bet this prop at PointsBet Sportsbook and claim two second-chance bets worth up to $2,000
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills — Sunday, Jan. 22, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Joe Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards: (-115) on Caesars Sportsbook
It certainly doesn’t feel great betting against Joey Franchise, and I’m definitely not counting the Bengals out, but I think Buffalo limits the damage Burrow does on Sunday.
The Bills’ passing defense has been solid all year, ranking ninth in pass DVOA and allowing just 6.5 yards per pass attempt — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The secondary has gotten a massive boost with the return of shut-down corner Tre’Davious White, who returned from injury to a full-time role five games ago.
While Burrow has passed for 280 or more yards seven times this year, he’s only reached that mark three times since Week 8. In his five career posteseason games, Burrow has hit this line just once. In his career, Burrow averages 309.1 yards per game at home compared to 254.2 on the road.
Complicating matters more is the current state of Cincinnati’s offensive line. Burrow could potentially be without his starting left tackle Jonah Williams and starting right guard Alex Cappa.
Bet this prop at Caesars Sportsbook and get $1,250 on Caesars with code STARTFULL
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers — Sunday, Jan. 22, 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Deebo Samuel Over 14.5 rushing yards: (-120) on BetMGM Sportsbook
Deebo looked like his old, explosive self in last week’s game against Seattle, racking up 165 scrimmage yards on nine touches. Samuel’s rushing prop was just 13.5 yards last week and has been moved up just one yard after rushing for over 30 yards on three carries.
Although Dallas ranks fifth in rush DVOA, it has been susceptible on the edges, where Samuel gets the most of his rushes. On rush attempts to the left tackle, guards/center, and right tackle, the Cowboys rank 8th, 5th, and 14th, respectively. On rushes to the left edge and right edge, Dallas ranks 22nd and 19th, respectively.
Deebo has gone for 15 or more rushing yards in six of his 14 total games this season. When it comes to the playoffs, however, Samuel has hit this in six of seven. The only game he didn’t go over this total was against Minnesota in 2019 when he only had one carry.
Bet this prop at BetMGM Sportsbook and claim a $1,000 risk-free bet with code ROCKYBET
