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The Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds and Analysis: Check This Juicy Missed Cut Parlay

The PGA Tour heads to Orlando for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. The tournament is played annually at historic Bay Hill Club and Lodge and marks the second stop of the Florida swing. It also marks the third newly elevated event on the PGA’s 2023 schedule. 

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge will host 44 of the top 50 golfers in the world this week. The Par 72 stretches out to almost 7,500 yards, featuring Bermuda grass throughout. It is a long, narrow course with thick rough, and plenty of water hazards. The greens play firm and fast, so finding the fairway is crucial to setting up approach shots. 

We didn’t see any wind at PGA National, but strong gusts are expected at Bay Hill. If that happens, expect the winning score to be in the single digits under par. It’s not uncommon to see the King’s home course play more like a U.S. Open than a regular PGA Tour event. 

Let’s take a look at the latest bettings odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill from the top legal sportsbooks. If you’re interested in using one of these sports betting apps for the first time, don’t forget to check out our exclusive promos and bonuses page for the latest offers.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds

The field this week at Bay Hill includes the regular trio of favorites. Jon Rham (+700), Rory McIlroy (+900), and Scottie Scheffler (+1000) find themselves separated from the rest of the pack by a wide margin. We should get used to this, as the three of them are likely to remain the PGA’s three-headed monster for the foreseeable future. 

A little further down in the betting odds we have more familiar faces. Strong finishes by Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa at the Genesis Invitational have them available in the +2000 range at Bay Hill. Xander Schaufelle, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau are next in line, with each priced around +2500. 

Comparing Last Week’s Betting Strategy

In my latest betting preview for the Genesis Invitational, I provided insight into handicapping tournaments featuring the world’s best players. I love nothing more than targeting value guys and longshot picks, but this is a losing strategy during these elevated events. The Honda Classic was a great spot to look further down the board since the field was wide open. This week? With 44 of the top 50 competing? Not so much. 

Another rule to follow lately? If Jon Rham is playing, save your money. Longshots lose a ton of win equity against the best in the world. And in case you’ve been sleeping soundly under a pile of rocks, World No. 1 Jon Rahm is playing out of his mind right now

I’m not interested in backing Rahm at such short odds, but I’m not standing in his way either. I won’t be adding any outright winners this week. Instead, I’ve got two other pre-tournament bets to consider. I’ve also included my favorite final-round betting strategy to keep an eye on this weekend.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational: Missed Cut Parlay

Chris Kirk (+225) & Eric Cole (+110) to Miss the Cut, (+650 Parlay)

Golf fans were treated to a spectacular finish at last week’s Honda Classic. Chris Kirk outdueled journeyman Eric Cole en route to a playoff victory on PGA National’s Champion course. It was his first tour victory in eight years. For a field that didn’t feature a single player inside the Top 10 in the world, it was one of the most captivating tournament finishes in recent memory.

That’s exactly why we’re fading both players this week. 

A profitable betting strategy across sports is to fade hot players or teams after a statement victory. “Letdown spots” are incredibly common, and it’s easy to understand why: teams, or players, are emotionally exhausted after giving 110% effort the previous week. Sportsbooks lean on bettors’ recency bias to incorrectly inflate the line the following week. Instead, the odds should actually be worse, making this a profitable angle to target.

Both Kirk and Cole played at the top of their games for 72 holes last week. Kirk squeaked out the victory, but Cole cashed a second-place check worth three times his total career earnings. It was a huge victory for Kirk, but an equally emotional week for Cole. To suggest it didn’t take a toll on either player is shortsighted. 

Now, they’re expected to gear up for a brutal test at Bay Hill against one of the toughest fields of the year. Not only that, but their opponents enter this tournament fully rested! These numbers feel way too high to me, and I’m happy to parlay them together to fit my brilliant narrative.

Kirk is available at +225 to miss the cut and Cole is priced at +125. I don’t recommend parlays often, but this feels correlated. You can parlay both players to miss the cut at bet365 Sportsbook for a juicy +650 ticket.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational: Top English Player

Danny Willett +1200

Danny Willett is a name that’s popped up in the last few weeks. He’s +1200 to finish as the top player from England this week at Bay Hill. 

Willett finished 29th at the Honda Classic and 18th at the Genesis Invitational. He’s a golfer that plays well under difficult conditions, and his game is trending in the right direction. Owning a Masters green jacket is also a lifelong membership into the “can compete on tough tracks” club.

During the Genesis, Willett gained more than two strokes against the field for the week en route to his Top 20 finish — an impressive feat considering the strength of the field. And although this group of English players features past Arnold Palmer winner Tyrrell Hatton, and recent Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion Justin Rose, +1200 feels a tad high. 

I also don’t mind a dart throw on his outright odds to win at more than 200-to-1. But again… Jon Rahm is playing… so don’t go crazy. 

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Arnold Palmer Invitational: Final Round Betting Strategy

There’s one other angle I love targeting a few times each year. It’s a bet on the clubhouse leader during the final round of a tournament played under difficult scoring conditions. 

There are only a handful of opportunities to make these types of bets each season. When course conditions get brutal, the golfer who leads in the clubhouse often holds an advantage over the players still on the course. Sportsbooks misprice these clubhouse leaders, incorrectly assuming at least one golfer will make a run of back-nine birdies during the final round. That happens every week on tour, right?

Nope. Every year there’s someone who wins a tournament that finished well ahead of the final group.

As noted above, Bay Hill is a beast of a course. It features one of the toughest two-hole finishes on tour. The 17th hole is a brutal 230-yard Par 3 and the Par 4 18th features a carry over water to a traditional tucked pin. These are not birdie holes. 

If you find yourself watching the back nine on Sunday, and there’s a player sitting comfortably in the clubhouse within a few shots of the lead, bet him. Being finished at Bay Hill is preferable to playing the back nine on a breezy Sunday. There’s a much higher probability for bogeys coming down the stretch than birdies and sportsbooks often misprice the clubhouse leader. You could catch a monster number on the golfer in the clubhouse. 

Make the bet.

Article contributed by Jim Robinson

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