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Best NBA Finals Prop Bets: Look to the Overs on KCP’s Defense and Caleb Martin’s Shooting

The Denver Nuggets are now four games away from winning the franchise’s first NBA championship, and they are heavy favorites to pull it off. However, the Miami Heat have been resilient and have proven to be a difficult out despite the odds against them.

Although the Nuggets are 2-0 against the Heat this season, Miami is a far different team than any version Denver faced. There is much that will be revealed about the matchup in the first contest, but in the meantime, here is what we’ve identified as the best player prop bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals available at the top online sportsbooks. Claim one of the many sports betting bonuses to get in on the action.

Best NBA Finals Prop Bets

Both teams have been exceptional, but Miami has done so with better scoring distribution. The Heat’s proven ability to spread the ball around has gotten them this far, and if they are to pull off the upset, it is what will get them over the top. As for Denver, the supporting cast played above average as well, but Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray still carried a significant amount of the scoring load. They’ll need to be more balanced in this round as the Heat have proven to be able to slow down superstars, at least when it matters most.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Steals (+126 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been a bright spot for the Nuggets on both sides of the ball. He is connecting from deep and playing stellar defense against the opposing team’s star players. Caldwell-Pope has recorded at least two steals in seven of 15 postseason games. From playing the passing lanes to stripping primary ball handlers, he is a significant disruptor defensively. 

The Heat were among the league’s best at protecting the ball in the postseason, but they showed vulnerability against Boston. In two of the Heat’s three losses in the last round, they had 16 turnovers thanks to Boston’s defense. The Celtics’ best defenders — Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White — all averaged at least one steal against Miami and had multiple games with two or more steals. Caldwell-Pope’s role is similar, so he’ll have plenty of chances to force the Heat’s primary ball handlers into turnovers and cover this wager.

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Caleb Martin Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+124 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

If fans didn’t know his name before, they should now know who Caleb Martin is after his performance against the Celtics in the last round. He came within one vote of winning the Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 19 points per game on 60% shooting and 48% from deep. He was the most consistent scorer for Miami against Boston and had a significant impact on helping them to win the series. 

In his two worst games of the series, he made at least two 3-pointers. In the other four, he connected on at least three attempts. At the moment, he is as hot as anyone in the league from deep. Considering how short Miami’s break is between Game 7 of the last round and Game 1 of this series, we like him to pick up where he left off.

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Bruce Brown Over 11.5 Points (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Although Jokic and Murray have still found a way to dominate, Bruce Brown has found a way to take advantage of the defensive attention those two have received during the playoffs. In the regular season, he averaged 11.5 points per game on 48% shooting. In the playoffs, he is averaging 12 points per game on 53% shooting. In the last round, he scored at least 12 points in all but one game, which he played the least number of minutes he played in any game all postseason long. 

In Denver and Miami’s two head-to-head matchups this year, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra ensured to pay extra attention to Jokic. Brown took full advantage and averaged 14 points in those two games. Brown already has some idea of where the holes are in the Heat’s defense when they trap Jokic, which is why his odds of covering this wager seem favorable.

Gabe Vincent Over 14.5 Points (+170 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Gabe Vincent is one of Miami’s undrafted free agents who has wreaked havoc for opposing defenses in the playoffs this year. He averaged just south of 16 points per game against the Celtics on 48% shooting overall and 51% from three-point range in the last round. He has emerged as an integral piece to the Heat’s offense, and he is on a hot streak. 

He finished just 10 points in Game 7 after missing Game 6 with an ankle injury. Now that he has knocked off the rust from missing a game and has additional time to rest the ankle, look for him to return to his new normal against Denver. In Games 3, 4, and 5 against Boston, his scoring outputs were 29, 17, and 15. Additionally, he scored 15, 20, and 15 in Game 1 of each series, respectively to this point.

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Article contributed by David Fletcher.

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