Tennessee football opens SEC play on the road this season when they travel to face their bitter rival Florida in a Week 3 bout in Gainesville.
The Vols will presumably enter the matchup 2-0, as Austin Peay (Week 2) and Virginia (Week 1) are arguably Tennessee’s two easiest opponents on the schedule are certainly in the bottom three.
Before we dive into what Florida brings to the table in terms of personnel this season, let’s first acknowledge the 500-pound elephant in the room.
Tennessee has not won a game in Gainesville since 2003. Two full decades. Twenty years ago, Casey Clausen was tossing touchdowns and Jabari Davis was toting the rock for the Big Orange.
To further put how long its been into perspective, I wasn’t even 14 months old the last time Tennessee beat Florida. I graduate college this December.
Aside from this game being crucial for Tennessee to begin SEC play with a victory, it’s even more important that the Vols get exercise some demons down in the swamp.
Let’s take a look at what the 2023 Gators.
What happened in 2022:
Year one under Billy Napier started off on a high note when the Gators beat Utah in Week one. An Anthony Richardson masterclass against the defending Pac-12 champions created high hopes for what was to come in the 2022 season.
However, the Gators were quickly humbled in Week 2 with a 10-point loss to Kentucky before barely defeating a poor South Florida team by a field goal. The following week, Florida lost to Tennessee, and outside of consecutive wins against Texas A&M and South Carolina, the rest of Florida’s season wasn’t pretty.
The Gators finished 6-6 with losses to Vanderbilt, rival Florida State, LSU and Georgia. To top it off, an Anthony Richardson-less Florida got run off the field by Oregon State, 30-3, in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Florida had a tough 2022 schedule. And while there were a few admirable wins, the loss to Vanderbilt coupled with getting blown out by Oregon State will leave a bad taste in the mouth for many when thinking back to the 2022 Gators.
Florida offense outlook:
The biggest loss on Florida’s offense is obviously Anthony Richardson. The fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Richardson, albeit inconsistent, was one of the SEC’s most dangerous players a year ago.
Their offense takes a step back with the loss of AR15. Although Richardson was turnover prone during his time in Gainesville, there’s a clear drop off from Richardson to Graham Mertz, who will presumably start at quarterback for Florida this fall.
Mertz transfers in from Wisconsin where he started 32 games as a Badger. Mertz’ best of four seasons at Madison came last year, where the Overland Park, Kansas, native threw for just over 2,100 yards and 19 touchdowns along with 10 interceptions.
Mertz has reportedly grasped Napier’s scheme quickly, but the Gators’ offense will run through their rushing duo of Trevor Etienne Montrell Johnson Jr.
Florida boasts one of the better, and arguably the most underrated, backfields in the SEC. Johnson and Etienne combined for 1,560 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last season, and both backs will be the primary focus for Tennessee’s defense in Week three.
Senior Ricky Pearsall leads the way in the wide receiver room, coming off a 661-yard, five-touchdown season.
Outside of Richardson, All-America guard O’Cyrus Torrence (NFL Draft), WR Xzavier Henderson and a few others along the offensive line are notable losses.
Napier and co. did a good job replenishing the offensive line with players from Kentucky, Baylor and Alabama, but the Gators could shouldn’t be considered strong up front.
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Florida defense outlook:
Florida could be sneaky good on the defensive side of the ball this season after a putrid 2022. New 29-year-old defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong comes in, which has created a fair amount of optimism for the Gator defense.
Florida added seven newcomers along the defensive line, including Memphis’ Cam Jackson and top 50 recruit Kelby Collins (Fr.).
The Gators return some solid talent at linebacker, and the secondary has the chance to be the best position group for Florida along with running back.
Florida brings in six defensive backs in the 2023 class, and star Jason Marshall Jr. returns for his junior season.
If the Gators are weak again defensively in 2023, it will be because of the front seven.
Prediction:
Florida has potential to surprise people this season but also could struggle to reach bowl eligibility.
I side more so with the latter. I am not a believer in Graham Mertz and don’t see Florida having a good enough pass rush.
The receiver depth won’t help Mertz, and shaky offensive line play will prevent Florida’s run game from reaching its potential.
Gainesville is a house of horrors for Tennessee, no question about it. And if there is one must-win game for the Big Orange in 2023, it’s Florida. With the game being in week three, Tennessee needs to set the tone for the season in their first true test.
Josh Heupel and Joe Milton III get it done. Florida hangs around for 60 minutes, but Tennessee shows why they are the better team in Week three.
Tennessee 31, Florida 23
