The Opponent: In some form or fashion, the University of Florida has existed since 1853. It took on the name the University of the State of Florida in 1905, before simplifying that to its present name several years later. The school has over 50,000 total students when you count its various graduate programs, making it one of the largest non-online universities in America. Surprisingly, it is only the second-largest college in the state of Florida. The Gators may have clipped the Golden Knights on the gridiron last weekend, but UCF has a larger total enrollment. Florida has been playing football since 1906 and was a charter member of the SEC in 1932. The football program was a bit of a late bloomer but claims four national titles in the last thirty years. Florida is currently coached by the embattled Billy Napier. In the middle of his third season in Gainesville, Napier is 14-16 overall and 7-11 in the SEC.
Are they any Good?: The Gators are 3-2 on the season. They have wins over Samford, Mississippi State, and UCF. They have pretty decisive losses to Miami and Texas A&M, two teams ranked inside the Top 15 right now. Expectations were uncharacteristically low for Florida this season, mostly due to a historically difficult schedule. Their Over/Under win total was 4.5 in August. The UCF win was big for a number of reasons, but Billy Napier’s seat is still rather hot going into the meat of the Gator schedule. By Florida’s own standards, this is not a very good football team. Still, the Gators have managed to beat Tennessee on a regular basis with pretty subpar teams. Florida is gaining confidence with recent wins, and the Gators never seem to fear playing Tennessee. Whether Florida is “good” or not may not matter on Saturday night. They have history on their side. The Vols have not beaten the Gators in consecutive home games since 1990 and 1992.
What will this game tell us about Tennessee?: This game could go a long way in explaining whether last week’s performance in Fayetteville was an uncharacteristic road stinker or a sign of larger problems. The Arkansas game made it three straight seasons where Josh Heupel’s team has lost on the road to an unranked opponent. Certain issues can be corrected with effort and execution. Tennessee has to play smarter, and harder, to reach anywhere near its potential this season. Are there items that can’t be corrected over the course of one week though? Saturday night will go a long way in answering that question.
What does Vegas say?: This line has moved around plenty over the last few weeks but opened at -15.5 last Sunday. It currently sits between -14.5 and -15.5, with Florida attracting plenty of early action. The consensus game total is 55.5. The Gators are 2-3 ATS this season and have gone “over” in three of their five games. The Vols are now 4-1 ATS, and have also seen their game totals go “over” in three games. The Vols have been favored eight times against the Gators in the last 20+ years, with Saturday’s spread being the largest. In that span, Tennessee is 1-7 ATS against Florida as favorites.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Adjust to what works, even if it is not in your nature. Tennessee clearly has pass protection issues, and it goes beyond the poor play of its offensive tackles. Running backs and tight ends aren’t always doing their job in pass protection. The quarterback is holding onto the ball too long at times. There are more issues than you can reasonably correct in one week, so the Vols have to adjust. That could mean a number of things, and I imagine the coaching staff has considered every option it can this week. Saturday night it has to start with the running game though. Despite nearly a dozen different head coaches since the days of Fulmer & Spurrier, one trend has held true in this lopsided rivalry. The team that outrushes its opponent will win the game. There are very few exceptions to that rule over the last 30 years, and none in the Heupel era. The best thing Tennessee can do for its young quarterback is give him a steady run game with Dylan Sampson. The Vols also have to get Nico Iamaleava involved in the run game more. The coaching staff clearly has been hesitant to run its young quarterback, especially with little experienced depth behind Iamaleava. Removing that threat from this offense clearly makes it easier to defend. Is running Nico more a risk worth taking? The Gators played the run much better last week against UCF, but otherwise have been gashed on the ground this season. Florida is giving up 200 yards per game on the ground in its four games against FBS opponents. Tennessee needs to get up over 150 yards rushing to win this game. If the Vols can eclipse 200, then you really like their chances for a big win.
More from RTI: Tennessee Football Announces Uniforms For Florida Game
Matchup to watch on Defense: Disrupt the quarterback’s rhythm. In its last two games, both wins, Florida’s quarterbacks are completing 89% of their passes. That includes zero interceptions. It has been very impressive production. The Gators are staying on schedule with an efficient passing game. That has helped fuel the run game and kept them out of third and long. Florida has not surrendered a sack in any of its three losses. Tennessee has to disrupt that passing rhythm somehow. The Vols have just nine sacks on the year, not enough for a defense that averaged over three per game last season. Tennessee is pressuring the quarterback though, and will need to do so Saturday night. Florida has been playing freshman quarterback DJ Lagway every third series, a trend likely to continue Saturday. While the passing game under Graham Mertz has been conservative and controlled, the Gators will look to take some more shots under Lagway. This offense averages almost 4 yards per completion more under Lagway than Graham Mertz, albeit that figure is slightly skewed from a Samford blowout. Can Tennessee’s crowd, and defensive front, force the young Gator into some mistakes Saturday night? James Pearce Jr is coming off a great game in Fayetteville. Despite a scare from Bryson Eason, Tennessee’s defensive front remains fully intact. They can not allow Florida to play a ball-control offense with a steady passing game. The Vols have to disrupt a suddenly steady Gator offense.
Fun Fact: No traditional fun facts this week. We will get back to that next week, and maybe have some fun at Alabama’s expense. In light of Hurricane-related damage throughout the Southeast, especially the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Milton in Florida, it is a good opportunity to find out how you can help. Donations of money and non-perishable goods are needed in Florida, East Tennessee, and Western North Carolina. Please do your homework before sending actual money, and make sure it is a reputable non-profit organization. You were probably going to lose whatever bet you made on this game anyway, so send that money to folks who need it instead. If you have the time to commit, clean-up efforts will be going on for months in these communities. Do what you can to help.
So what Happens?: Florida comes into this game with some earned confidence after two solid wins. The Gators seem to have found some identity on offense, even with a two-quarterback system of sorts. Graham Mertz completed nearly 80% of his passes against Tennessee last season, with no turnovers. If his stat line is similar on Saturday night, then this will be a dogfight for the Volunteers. Despite a few busts in Fayetteville, this is still a Tennessee defense playing outstanding football. Tennessee’s run defense is still allowing less than 2.0 yards per carry on the season. It goes up against a Gator rushing attack that has been just average on the season. Graham Mertz has not attempted more than 23 passes in any one game this season. The Gators don’t want their quarterback being forced to throw it 30+ times Saturday night. The Vols want to force their hand by making this a one-dimensional Gator offense. Speaking of offense, this is a Tennessee offense averaging just 23 ppg in SEC play since Hendon Hooker’s departure. That figure is even inflated with two big performances against South Carolina and Vanderbilt last season. How much of that is personnel and execution versus SEC defenses adjusting to your schemes? The truth is probably somewhere in between. Odd-man defensive fronts have dominated talk radio and the message boards this week. Those are looks that have given this offense issues going back to last season. SEC defenses will continue to mix in those looks until Tennessee proves they counter them. I don’t believe Josh Heupel is naive or stubborn enough to think he would never have to make adjustments to his approach. Now is the time for that counter punch from Heupel. Sure, it would have been nice to see it coming out of a bye week, but Arkansas clearly surprised Tennessee with some of its defensive looks last week. The Vols can not afford to be surprised again. It will be interesting to see what the Vols do with tempo Saturday night. Does playing with more speed give your opponents less time to set up in some of the looks that have been troubling your offense? Additionally, I would like to see some more variations of the route tree from Tennessee. Much like last year, the Vols do not seem to be working the middle of the field much on offense. The wide splits, and longer developing routes, are not helping an offense that is struggling with pass protection. Bottom line, what you are doing on offense is not working right now. It is time to try some new things.
Tennessee is the more veteran team in this matchup and is considered to be the more talented team. They are playing at home. It would not be a good look to lose to Hot Seat Billy Napier under those circumstances. One of these years the Vols are going to blow out the Gators. It could be Saturday night, but I am not predicting it. Tennessee looks marginally better on offense. The Vols ride their defense, and running game, to a much-needed home win. Tennessee 30, Florida 24
