There has been little positivity around Tennessee football since spring practice and the departure of Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal. The Vols have fallen out of the vast majority of way-too-early preseason rankings and nearly any conversation about the 12-team College Football Playoff.
But one preseason ranking that’s analytically driven is still very high on Tennessee entering the summer. ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Tennessee not only in his top 25 but as his No. 13 team in the country.
Connelly’s SP+ is not a subjective ranking but uses a formula to rank every FBS team. Its exact formula is unclear but it uses three main factors— returning production, recent recruiting, recent history— to rank college football teams.
With that in mind, its little surprise that Iamaleava’s departure hasn’t radically changed the formula’s view of Tennessee. Most viewed the Vols as a borderline top 15 team before the quarterback’s departure, and what pundits most liked about the Vols still remains true.
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Tennessee should once again have one of the sports 15 best defenses, returning a young linebacker core and boasting one of the best cornerback rooms in the SEC. The Vols’ offense was already a question with Iamaleava at quarterback due to a lackluster passing attack a season ago and Tennessee’s inability to improve the receiver room this offseason.
However, the Vols have ran the football well every year under Josh Heupel and that will remain true in 2025 despite the departure of SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson to the NFL.
In his projection, Connelly gave Tennessee a 33% chance of going 10-2 again this season. The Vols likely need to go 10-2 to return to the 12-team College Football Playoff for the second straight season.
Tennessee is the fifth highest ranked SEC team in the SP+ coming in behind No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Texas, No. 9 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss. The Vols come in directly ahead of SEC foes Florida (14), Texas A&M (15), Oklahoma (16) and South Carolina (17).
With Connelly’s system ranking every FBS team, here’s a look at where all of Tennessee’s opponents rank: Syracuse (56), Georgia (4), UAB (112), Mississippi State (71), Arkansas (38), Alabama (2), Kentucky (43), Oklahoma (16), New Mexico State (122), Florida (14) and Vanderbilt (55).
