The NCAA Baseball Tournament gets under way this weekend and the Vols are once again hosting a regional at Lindsey Nelson Stadium. That brings up an age old debate of whether the host team should throw its ace in its NCAA Tournament opening game on Friday night or whether they should save them for the pivotal second game of a regional.
It’s all the more important for Tennessee this season thanks to the dominance of ace Liam Doyle. The SEC Pitcher of the Year got roughed up his last two times out but has otherwise been dominant for the Vols this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while striking out 142 batters in 83 innings pitched.
Here’s why Tennessee should save Doyle for Saturday against either Wake Forest or Cincinatti instead of using him in the opener against Miami (Ohio).
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This question is always two fold. It’s not just about how a host uses its ace but how it uses its second best starter. In this case, Marcus Phillips. Miami (Ohio) is a good matchup for Phillips on paper.
The Redhawks do have a good offense for a four-seed, ranking 43rd nationally in slugging and 53rd nationally in batting average. On its own, that might be a reason to start Doyle. But Miami (Ohio) isn’t used to an upper-90s fastball like Phillips boasts. That doesn’t mean they can’t have success against Phillips, but it is an advantage the right-handed pitcher hasn’t had since before SEC play.
Phillips biggest shortcoming this season has been his struggles holding runners once they get on base. Stealing bases is not part of Miami’s game. They rank just 238th nationally with 44 stolen bases to this point in the season.
The one team in the Knoxville Regional that does steal a plethora of bases is three-seed Cincinatti. The Bearcats rank 18th nationally with 128 stolen bases. If Tennessee saves Phillips for Saturday and ends up facing Cincinatti then that’s a very bad recipe in a highly important game.
Two-seed Wake Forest boasts the best offense of the three teams Tennessee could face in the regional. The Demon Deacons have five players with double digit home runs, ranking sixth nationally in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage.
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While Tennessee shouldn’t want Phillips to face Cincinatti, they should want Doyle to face Wake Forest in the pivotal second game of the Knoxville Regional.
That’s the case for starting Phillips in game one and Doyle in game two. How likely is Vitello to do it? The history says not all that likely. The Vols have not mixed up their starting pitching order in the five previous times they’ve made the NCAA Tournament under Vitello.
Now, the circumstances lend to it this year more than they ever have in the past. In 2019 and 2023, Tennessee went on the road for a regional. Teams never save their top pitcher if they’re in a two-three game to open a regional. The 2021 Tennessee team faced an elite Wright State offense to open the regional. Chase Dollander was the SEC Pitcher of the Year in 2022 but was Tennessee’s game two starter all season. In 2024, Tennessee didn’t have a true ace.
With Tennessee’s lack of pitching depth this season, it’s all the more important that the Vols win their first two games of the regional. Pitching Phillips in game one and Doyle in game two gives Tennessee the best shot to go 2-0 to open the weekend.
