Tennessee baseball opens up NCAA Tournament play this weekend at Lindsey Nelson Stadium as they host Miami (Ohio), Cincinatti and Wake Forest in the Knoxville Regional.
The Vols are looking to make a third straight run to the College World Series after a disappointing back half of the regular season. One of Tennessee’s biggest shortcomings in a poor finish to the regular season was a bullpen that lacked consistency. But the Vols’ bullpen provided reasons for optimism in the SEC Tournament last weekend.
Six pitchers out of Tennessee’s bullpen through 10-plus innings in the 30-game SEC slate. Others could get opportunities but those are the six arms that Tony Vitello and Frank Anderson have shown trust in. Which are the most trustworthy? Power ranking them here.
A few more notes before we get started. Liam Doyle, Marcus Phillips and Tegan Kuhns are left off this list and viewed as starters. Kuhns has pitched out of the bullpen and could do so again this weekend but he spent most the season, and ended it, as a starter so that’s how I’m designating him for this activity.
Secondly, college bullpens are not MLB bullpens. Roles vary. On any given game, Tennessee could ask Nate Snead to get nine outs and Dylan Loy to get one. That is not a fair comparison. So for the sake of this article, the scenario in question is this: Start of the ninth inning, one run lead. Who do you feel best about getting three outs to secure the win?
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1. RHP AJ Russell
SEC regular season stats: 11 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 13 K 6 BB
Russell is one of the most talented pitchers on Tennessee’s roster and has served in multiple roles this season since working his way back from offseason Tommy John Surgery.
Things were a bit shaky for Russell in his first three SEC outings with the junior allowing five earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched. He posted just a 20.8% strikeout rate with an 8.3% walk rate.
But Russell has gotten more comfortable and better since getting back into a groove. His fastball is remaining in the mid-90s as he eclipses 40 pitches, something that was shaky earlier this season. Last week against Alabama, Russell threw a season-high 78 pitches in an effective 3.2 innings pitched.
In his last three outings, Russell has allowed just two earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched. He’s striking out 32% of the batters he faces while walking 10%. Russell is Tennessee’s most trustworthy bullpen piece entering the NCAA Tournament.
2. LHP Brandon Arvidson
SEC regular season stats: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 22 K, 9 BB
The numbers weren’t great for Arvidson in SEC play and he was far from one of Tennessee’s most used arms. But the talented lefty has seemingly turned a corner as of late.
In his first 10 outings against SEC opponents, Arvidson posted a 7.84 ERA in 10.1 innings pitched. He had an impressive 34.6% strikeout rate but offered far too many free passes, posting 17% walk rate. The junior college transfer has seemingly turned a corner over his last four outings, allowing zero earned runs in 8.1 innings pitched. His strikeout rate has jumped to an insane 45% and his walk rate has evaporated to 3% in those outings.
Maybe it’s an overreaction to have him this high, but Arvidson has been great as of late and is fully trustworthy entering the postseason.
3. RHP Nate Snead
SEC regular season stats: 31 IP, 5.81 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 24 K, 11 BB, 15.9% K rate, 7.3% BB rate
Snead has had a rocky season after being Tennessee’s best reliever on last season’s national championship team. His low strikeout rate has led to trouble when he’s entered the game in jams. Tennessee has also asked a ton out of Snead this season as the innings pitched indicates.
However, the right-handed reliever has been better as of late. He’s gotten the job done in three of his last four outings, and he turned in his best outing since early March last week when he tossed 2.2 scoreless innings while allowing no hits against Texas.
And frankly, Snead has proven he can do it in the biggest moments. He seems better in short spurts this season than long relief. I trust Snead entering the NCAA Tournament.
4. LHP Dylan Loy
SEC regular season stats: 20 IP, 4.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18 K, 8 BB
The left-handed specialist had been one of Tennessee’s most trustworthy bullpen arms in SEC play. He had the best WHIP of any Vol reliever in SEC play with a 21% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. The Vols often use Loy as a lefty specialist and he’s thrived in that role.
But things have been rocky for Loy his last handful of outings. Over his last seven appearances, which account for 4.2 innings, he has a 9.62 ERA and has allowed three home runs. His strikeout rate is down to 15.4% and even more worrisome is a walk rate that’s risen 19.4% over that span.
Loy is a bit of an uncertainty entering the NCAA Tournament. I trust him as a lefty specialist still but I’m not sure how much I trust him in a full inning. The Vols need a strong tournament from him to make a deep run.
5. RHP Tanner Franklin
SEC regular season stats: 21.1 IP, 6.33 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 25 K, 6 BB, 24.5% K rate, 5.9% BB rate
No one has been more of a loose cannon out of Tennessee’s bullpen than Tanner Franklin. The talent is clearly there, he’s overpowered opponents at times and he does not offer free passes.
But he’s allowed six home runs this season, the most for anyone out of the bullpen, and has struggled to miss barrels at times.
Tennessee has thrown Franklin an inning or less 12 times against SEC competition this season. The Kennesaw State transfer has allowed a run in six of those outings. He’s been truly hit or miss.
6. RHP Brayden Krenzel
SEC regular season stats: 18 IP, 5.50 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 25 K, 12 BB
The story of Krenzel’s freshman season can be pretty easily divided up between his outings before he missed two weeks due to an illness and after.
In four SEC outings beforehand, Krenzel had a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings pitched while posting a a 29.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. And in actuality, Krenzel was better than that. He allowed five earned runs in one inning against Texas A&M but was otherwise fantastic in those three other outings giving the Vols needed long relief.
Since then, Krenzel has posted a 6.00 ERA in six innings pitched in five appearances. His strikeout rate is slightly down to 23.5% and his walk rate is way up to 23.5%. Krenzel is talented and well regarded for his competitive toughness, but he’s struggled since getting back in the fold.
