What has every college football national champion since 2011 had in common? They’ve each had a blue-chip ratio over 50%.
What is the blue-chip ratio? Exactly what it sounds like. The percentage of players on a roster that rated as four or five-star recruits out of high school compared to two or three-star recruits. For the first time in Josh Heupel’s tenure as head coach, Tennessee’s blue-chip ratio is over 50%. The Vols have a 54% blue-chip ratio on their 2025 roster, one of 18 teams on the right side of the blue-chip ratio.
The other 17 teams with a blue-chip ratio over 50%, in order, include Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas A&M, Oregon, Texas, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Penn State, Miami, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Southern Cal, Clemson and Florida State.
The good news for Tennessee is that they’re on the right side of the blue-chip ratio. But there’s some bad news too. First, Tennessee is tied with Florida State for the lowest blue-chip ratio of the 18 teams over 50%. Secondly, the teams that have won national championships have almost all had ratios north of 60%.
In fact, one team had a blue-chip ratio of 90%, three more had a blue-chip ratio over 80%, four more had a blue-chip ratio over 70% and two more had a blue-chip ratio over 60%.
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Only three national champions since 2011 had a blue-chip ratio under 60%— 2013 Florida State, 2016 Clemson and 2023 Michigan. Rivals Florida State and Clemson had something in common with those two teams— elite quarterback play. Jameis Winston won the 2013 Heisman Trophy and Deshaun Watson was one of the sports’ best quarterbacks in 2016.
Quarterback play is the great equalizer in football as Tennessee learned in 2022 when Hendon Hooker helped propel a roster well under the 50% blue-chip threshold to a 10-2 season. Time will tell what Tennessee’s quarterback play will look like this season but it almost certainly will not be elite.
Michigan was a unique case in 2023. The Wolverines had an inordinate amount of seniors in part because of COVID-19 eligibility relief that gave Michigan an extremely experienced line of scrimmage play. Tennessee will not have that luxury this fall.
So, Tennessee probably isn’t going to win the national championship this season. But Josh Heupel and his staff continue to accumulate more talent that is getting them closer to that caliber. If the Vols can get back to having high-level quarterback play like they did in 2022 then they could be legit championship contenders.
