After coming off a trip to the College Football Playoffs last season, analysts are fairly torn about what the ceiling of Tennessee’s upcoming season is. Most notably, it’s hard to lock down solid projections with an ongoing quarterback competition, especially one that was as unexpected (and delayed) as Tennessee’s was.
But the computer analytics have a different idea.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor has Tennessee with a 38.5% chance to make the playoffs and a 2.3% chance to win the National Championship. It lists the Vols with the 10th best chance to make the playoffs, which is one above Texas A&M and one spot below the reigning runner-up Notre Dame.
College football analyst Heather Dinich isn’t buying that computer’s projection, though. She disagrees with ESPN’s computer ranking, citing a lack of returning offensive production and a specific early-season matchup she finds particularly challenging.
“This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS),” Dinich writes for ESPN. “With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule.”
Still, though, she maps out what the route could look like and what the committee may like and dislike from the Vols’ upcoming schedule, which ranks as the second-easiest in terms of conference games from CBS Sports.
Dinich tagged splitting two key conference games as a key to impressing the committee this season.
“Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia,” Dinich writes. “This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.”
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She also notes Alabama as Tennessee’s toughest opponent this season. While the Georgia game could be a fair contender for this spot, the stakes of the Alabama game being both on the road and coming after a likely Georgia loss give the game against the Tide the leg up.
Unsurprisingly, Dinich tags unconvincing wins as something the committee won’t like with the previously mentioned schedule.
“While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition, the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State,” the ESPN analyst writes. “Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn’t impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids.”
Here’s a look at what Tennessee’s schedule looks like this fall:
- Saturday, Aug 30 – vs Syracuse (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
- Saturday, Sep 6 – vs ETSU (Knoxville)
- Saturday, Sep 13 – vs Georgia (Knoxville)
- Saturday, Sep 20 – vs UAB (Knoxville)
- Saturday, Sep 27 – at Mississippi State (Starkville)
- Saturday, Oct 4 – OPEN
- Saturday, Oct 11 – vs Arkansas (Knoxville)
- Saturday, Oct 18 – at Alabama (Tuscaloosa)
- Saturday, Oct 25 – at Kentucky (Lexington)
- Saturday, Nov 1 – vs Oklahoma (Knoxville)
- Saturday, Nov 8 – OPEN
- Saturday, Nov 15 – vs New Mexico State (Knoxville)
- Saturday, Nov 22 – at Florida (Gainesville)
- Saturday, Nov 29 – vs Vanderbilt (Knoxville)
Check out Heath Dinich’s full College Football Playoff rankings here.
