Tennessee football’s season opener is just 10 days away and we’re starting to put pen to paper with some preseason predictions. Well, in this case we’re starting to put some predictions out on the airwaves.
The RTI team jumped on the RTI Press Pass Podcast earlier this week to predict Tennessee’s statistical leaders in a number of categories, predict over/unders for certain players stats and to offer up some more takes on the 2025 Vols.
Tomorrow we’ll publish our defensive preview and predictions, but for today it’s all about the offense. Check out our predictions here or listen to us break it all down on the RTI Press Pass Podcast.
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Joey Aguilar Over/Under 24.5 Total Touchdowns
Context: Aguilar totaled 25 touchdowns last season. Nico Iamaleava totaled 21
Ric Butler: Under
Reasoning: I think it’ll be more than Nico a year ago too, but part of the reason I’m going under is that when Tennessee gets to the red zone I think they’ll lean on the running back room. I think they’ll be feens in the final 20 yards of the field. Taking the under doesn’t necessarily mean I’m down on what he can be as a quarterback. I just think they’ll land on the running backs.
Ryan Schumpert: Under
Reasoning: I don’t think he’s going to run for as many as Nico Iamaleava did (three). I do think Aguilar will throw for more than 19 touchdowns if he starts all 12 games. I just don’t think you’ll see Tennessee use his legs as much in the red zone. I’ll go under but narrowly.
Ryan Sylvia: Under
Reasoning: I think they’re going to want to use him in a similar way as Nico, as in rely on the defense because it’s going to be one of the better ones in the country. It’s going to be the reason you win a lot of games this year. For that reason, I think he passes Nico’s passing touchdowns but I agree, he has just 1-2 rushing touchdowns. 21 or 22 though, which is more than Nico gave you, but even with 1 or 2 on the ground that’s just shy of that mark.
Joey Aguilar Over/Under 5.5 Interceptions
Context: Iamaleava threw five interceptions last season. Joe Milton threw five interceptions in 2023. Aguilar threw 14 interceptions last season
Ric: Over
Reasoning: I think Aguilar starts all 12 games so I’m playing to the longevity aspect.
Schumpert: Under
Reasoning: It’ll either be over in touchdowns and over in interceptions or under and under. If they don’t hit a bunch of explosive plays in the passing game, they’ll pivot to a lot of what they did last year with 12 personnel.
Sylvia: Over
Reasoning: I have it at six interceptions so I love the line at 5.5 I’ll go just over. I don’t think it’ll be much over. If he throws eight I would be a little surprised. I just don’t think they’ll put him in a lot of situations to make those mistakes on a consistent basis.
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Who Leads Tennessee In Rushing Yards And Touchdowns?
Ric: DeSean Bishop (Yards), Star Thomas (Touchdowns)
Reasoning: This was my hardest one to choose because of the unknowns on the rotation. Maybe I’m buying too much stock into De’Rail Sims talking about Star Thomas being a complete back. I don’t think it’ll be the same guy leading in yards and touchdowns because of the balanced talent.
Schumpert: Peyton Lewis (Yards), DeSean Bishop (Touchdowns)
Reasoning: I think Lewis will be the most explosive guy and have the most big runs. I went with Bishop for touchdowns similarly to why Sylvia did. He’s a reliable guy. Vibes tell me they’ll go to Bishop in the red zone. He’s a good between the tackles runner. Also hedging my bet a bit.
Sylvia: Star Thomas (Yards), DeSean Bishop (Touchdowns)
Reasoning: I think you could make the argument pretty easily for all three guys in either category. It is tough. I think Thomas will take over the most number of games as Tennessee rides the hot hand. Bishop reminds me a bit of what Jabari Small was in 2021 and 2022. The rushing yards weren’t touching 1,000 but he was always in the end zone. Nine touchdowns in 2021 and 13 touchdowns in 2022.
Who Leads Tennessee In Receiving Yards And Touchdowns?
Ric: Mike Matthews (Both)
Reasoning: With how dynamic he is, it’s hard to believe that it won’t be him even with some spotlight pressure. Is Staley going to just be used as a tool when needed? Is he going to have a more expanded role? I think that’s yet to be seen. So all signs point to Mike Matthews.
Schumpert: Mike Matthews (Both)
Reasoning: For sure Matthews for receiving yards. I’ll be optimistic and say him for touchdowns. That’s the better scenario for Tennessee instead of Miles Kitselman leading them in receiving touchdowns. I don’t think you want Kitselman leading them in touchdowns. No knock on Kitselman, but that just screams that the passing game is struggling again.
Sylvia: Mike Matthews (Both)
Reasoning: He’ll be on the field the most. I have to see it to believe it with Chris Brazzell. He wasn’t overly productive last season even with the memorable catch against Alabama. It wasn’t a breakout season by any means. I think they have to rely on Matthews more. On the inside, we’ll see how much they lean on Braylon Staley compared to playing 12 personnel.
Does Mike Matthews Total Over 749 yards?
Context: Dont’e Thornton led Tennessee with 661 yards last season
Butler: Over
Reasoning: I wasn’t on the over with touchdown passes but I think Tenenssee is going to be able to throw the ball down field in route to getting into the red zone. I think Matthews will have the ability to stretch the defense and make plays with the ball in his hands. And he’ll have a bunch of chances to do so.
Schumpert: Over
Reasoning: I bounced back-and-forth on this a lot. I think it’s a bit of a numbers game. Last year, Tennessee had more depth and players splitting targets. This year, Tennessee is going to lean on less guys and Matthews is going to get force fed targets. I’ll say he goes over though I don’t say that with a ton of confidence.
Sylvia: Over
Reasoning: I don’t think it’ll go too far over. I looked at 2023 because the offense was more open with Joe Milton but the receiver room was closer, from a depth standpoint, to what it looks like this season. Squirrel White led them in receiving yards with 803 in 2023. I don’t know if Mike Matthews gets above 800. I think he’ll be between 700-800 yards but I’ll go with slightly over.
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A Take
Ric: Joey Aguilar pans out
Reasoning: He keeps Tennessee in a conversation to make the playoffs to end the year. I don’t know what that necessarily looks like from a hot take perspective. I don’t know if he’s top five in passing yards or has a top five passer rating. But Aguilar pans out, is Tennessee’s starter for 12 games and plays well.
Schumpert: Three Georgia natives lead Tennessee in receiving touchdowns
Reasoning: I don’t fully believe this. It’s definitely a hot take. Already said Matthews leads Tennessee in receiving touchdowns. I’ll say Travis Smith Jr. and Ethan Davis are the next two. It feels a bit like buying Kyle Pitts stock, but I’ll say Davis becomes a red zone threat. Then Smith emerges as a more reliable option than Brazzell.
Sylvia: Tennessee wins at Alabama
Reasoning: I think Kalen DeBoer is a fine coach. I’m not buying him as the long term answer with all the expectations that are there. I’m certainly not buying Ty Simpson. Tennessee goes into Tuscaloosa and does what they should have done in 2023— winning that football game.
