Is Tennessee football a top 10 team in the country? According to the updated ESPN FPI rankings that were released on the Sunday before the Vols’ 2025 season opener, the answer is yes.
In the ‘Football Power Index,’ Tennessee clocks in as the No. 8 team in the sport. This mark is good for fourth in the SEC behind just No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia and No. 3 Alabama. Other programs ahead of UT in order from highest to lowest ranked are Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame and Oregon.
The Vols were given an FPI mark of 16.6. Texas, the top-ranked team, is at 24.5. The Longhorns have a full three points over Georgia in second and nearly four points over Alabama in third. Tennessee is 1.1 points behind seventh-place Oregon and 1.1 points ahead of ninth-place Texas A&M.
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This update saw some changes to the back half of the top 25, but did not impact anyone’s positioning inside the top 17. SMU, Oklahoma and Auburn all went up a spot, and Kansas State dropped three spots behind those schools to No. 21 after its Week 0 loss to Iowa State. The Cyclons jumped Virginia Tech and Washington to land at No. 31.
The model also projects every team’s win total for the year. FPI currently has Tennessee at a 9.0-3.1 record prediction. The odds to win out are at 0.7%, but the odds to win six games and get bowl eligible in Josh Heupel’s fifth season are at 99.5%.
To win the SEC, the Vols are given a 5.9% probability. This is the fourth best in the conference behind, again, Texas, Georgia and Alabama. Behind Tennessee are Ole Miss, Texas A&M, then South Carolina.
To return to the 12-team College Football Playoffs, FPI gives the Vols a 43.4% chance. To make the national championship for the first time since 1998, it sits at 7.0%. To win the game for the first time since that 1998 season, it is at 3.1%.
