After a long offseason, Tennessee football returns to the field again on Saturday as it opens up Josh Heupel’s fifth season as head coach in Atlanta. First things first for the Vols is a matchup with Syracuse in the Aflac Kickoff Game before Tennessee plays as manageable of a SEC schedule as they’ll ever have.
The Vols are coming off a 10-3 (6-2 SEC) season that saw them earn rivalry wins over Florida and Alabama on their way to making the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. But it’s been a turbulent offseason in Knoxville with quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s departure to the transfer portal leading the way.
The sportsbooks have Tennessee’s regular season over/under win total at 8.5 and it seems to be a fair one. Tennessee has challenging matchups with rivals Alabama, Georgia and Florida. Beyond that, a home matchup with Oklahoma is the only potential top 25 challenge.
Here’s what the RTI staff thinks we see from Tennessee football in the regular season.
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Ric Butler
I said this on last week’s episode of the RTI: Press Pass, where we did game-by-game predictions, but my biggest worry before doing the schedule predictions was that all of my picks would end up chalk. In other words, pick Tennessee to beat the teams worse than them and lose to the teams better than them. That’s exactly how it turned out, but I guess that’s also what happens when you have a team that has some question marks but also a fairly manageable schedule.
The Syracuse game at the beginning of the season is an interesting one, as we’ll find out where this team’s starting point is going to be. Obviously, as Josh Heupel likes to say during the season, good teams have to keep getting better as things progress. And aside from a tough conference opener against Georgia in Week 3, I think Tennessee’s schedule sets up nicely to put together a nice stretch to open the season. I have Tennessee going 5-1 to open the year with a loss to Georgia and a revenge win over Arkansas in Neyland Stadium. Then you get to Alabama. Tennessee has struggled on the road in years past, and while some arguments have been made that the Crimson Tide have been overrated to start the season, I still think that this is a tough one for the Vols to pull out. 5-2.
Then you hit a key two-game stretch. Tennessee has to stay on the road in the following week with a matchup against Kentucky. I think the Wildcats could/will be in shambles at that point, but UT can’t let it be a stumbling block. Then there’s Oklahoma. To me, this is the game for UT that separates that 8.5 win total from the gambling markets before the season. Can Tennessee defend home turf against the Sooners’ new quarterback? The Vols have been rock solid at home under Heupel, so I’m going with yes. But this is a potential swing game I’ve had circled for a while. Tennessee then gets to an unusually late season game against Florida. Back to the road struggles, I’m not picking Tennessee right now. Could Florida be a mess and Billy Napier be on his way out at that point in the season? It’s possible. That would help set up a Tennessee win. But in the preseason, I’ve learned my lesson from picking Tennessee to go on the road and win in Gainesville in the past. I think Tennessee closes out the season with a win over Vanderbilt, but the Commodores will be looking to ruin Tennessee’s day during that game in Knoxville.
Prediction: 9-3
Ryan Schumpert
Here’s a thought to describe how rocky an offseason it’s been for Tennessee. If I asked you to name the five best/most important players for Tennessee entering the 2025 season, most would have listed all three of Nico Iamaleava, Jermod McCoy and Boo Carter. Iamaleava is gone via the transfer portal, McCoy tore his ACL in January and will miss the start of the season and Carter’s status is uncertain after a topsy-turvy summer.
So it’s certainly been a shaky offseason for Tennessee. But there’s other questions about this team. Even with Iamaleava, the Vols’ passing attack struggled a season ago. Tennessee did little to bolster its receiver room this offseason though they were extremely proactive restocking the offensive line that lost four starters from a season ago. Even defensively, Tennessee has shaky depth at tackle and lost by far its two best pass rushers from a season ago.
But there’s plenty of positives about this Tennessee team too. Despite losing SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson, they have a stable of good running backs and they should be a strong running team again this season. More importantly, Tennessee’s defense is why they made the College Football Playoff a season ago. It should again be the strength of the team. The secondary is strong despite McCoy’s injury and the uncertainty around Carter. Tennessee’s defensive line has been strong every season under Rodney Garner and this is the most talented linebacker room in Heupel’s tenure.
Perhaps the biggest plus for this team is a manageable schedule. On paper, this looks like an eight win team to me. Maybe even a seven win team. But I really struggle to find four losses. Heupel keeps things afloat as Tennessee misses the playoffs but has a strong season.
Prediction: 9-3
Ryan Sylvia
Tennessee’s roster on paper has enough questions that it’s fair to be skeptical about the outlook of the team. However, when you combine the talent that is there with the remarkably easy schedule for an SEC team, you have to think there won’t be too much of a drop-off in terms of wins and losses in 2025.
The only game I have penciled in as a loss is to Georgia. While the Bulldogs have an unproven quarterback, UGA still has plenty of talent around Gunner Stockton to be one of the better teams in the country. Outside of that, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Vols beat anyone else on the schedule, including Alabama. The issue is, Tennessee hasn’t necessarily shown enough to make you think it won’t drop two or three of those other contests.
To me, it comes down to how well Joey Aguilar and the offense perform. The defense is losing some critical pieces, but did a good job of reloading at most of those spots. It might take a small step back from last year, but overall, it should be one of the better groups in the country. This could lead to what things looked like last year. If UT protects the ball and doesn’t make too many mistakes on offense, it could take advantage of an easy schedule and win a lot of games. If Aguilar and company take a step back from a year ago, it could fall into holes it won’t be able to climb out of, though.
Overall, I think a solid year that falls short of the playoffs is in store. On the RTI: Press Pass, I made the choice of picking Tennessee to beat Alabama on the road. I’ll stick with it, primarily because I’m not buying stock in the Tide this year, but I’d still be surprised if they got to double-digit regular-season wins again. Oklahoma and Florida get hairy and are the two other games I have pinned as potential defeats at the moment.
Prediction: 9-3
