Tennessee football heads on the road Saturday for the first time in the 2025 season as they face an unbeaten Mississippi State team in Starkville.
The first road game of the season has renewed the conversation about Tennessee football’s road struggled under head coach Josh Heupel. So what do the numbers say? The Vols are 8-10 (7-9 SEC) on the road in Heupel’s first four seasons.
Tennessee’s overall road numbers under Heupel are not shocking. They have not gotten over the hump in road rivalry games against Florida, Georgia or Alabama while also losing in the College Football Playoffs at Ohio State a season ago.
But what about as favorites? This is where the numbers get really interesting. Tennessee has been road favorites 11 time under Josh Heupel. They’re 7-4 against the spread and 7-4 outright. Meaning that when Tennessee has won as road favorites, they have covered. But every time they’ve failed to cover, they have lost.
The most infamous road losses for Tennessee under Heupel came at South Carolina in 2022 and then against Arkansas a season ago. Tennessee was a remarkable 22-point favorites against South Carolina before losing by 25 points. The Vols were 14-point favorites at Arkansas a season ago before losing outright.
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Back in 2023, Tennessee suffered a blowout loss against Missouri as three-point favorites. They also lost as 5.5-point favorites at Florida during the 2023 season.
Tennessee’s seven road wins as favorites under Heupel? A victory at Kentucky as one-point favorites in 2021, a victory at Pitt as a 6.5-point favorite in 2022, a victory at LSU as a three-point favorite in 2022, a victory at Vanderbilt as a 14-point road favorite in 2022, a victory at Kentucky as a four-point favorite in 2023, a victory at Oklahoma as a 5.5-point favorite last season and a victory at Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite last season.
Tennessee is currently 7.5-point favorites over Mississippi State according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. The 7.5-point spread is right in the middle of the Vols’ four road losses as favorites under Heupel. If the Vols are going to get back to the College Football Playoff then they need to take care of business in Starkville this weekend.
Kickoff between Tennessee and Mississippi State is at 4:15 p.m. ET Saturday afternoon. Dave Neal, Fozzy Whittaker and Morgan Uber are on the call for the SEC Network.
