The Opponent: The Agricultural and Mechanical College of the State of Mississippi, or Mississippi A&M, was founded in 1878. It adopted the name Mississippi State University in 1932, the same year it joined the SEC as a charter member. The school has been playing football since 1895. The Bulldogs claim one SEC title, 1941, the fewest of any founding member. Mississippi State is coached by Jeff Lebby, in his second season in Starkville. Lebby is a former offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach under Josh Heupel, so there is no shortage of familiarity between these two coaching staffs.
Are they any good?: Through four games, Mississippi State appears to be one of the SEC’s most improved teams in 2025. Year 1 was rough for Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs went winless in the SEC and just 2-10 overall. Injuries at the quarterback position hampered the offense, but State’s abysmal defense was largely to thank for their poor record. Thus far, the Bulldog defense looks noticeably improved in 2025. The offense has also taken another step with a healthy Blake Shapen, and two dynamic transfer receivers. Mississippi State already has an upset win over a Top 15 Arizona State team. They can add another Top 15 win on Saturday, with an upset over Tennessee. Good coaches usually see big jumps in Year 2. It appears we are seeing that from Jeff Lebby. It is just a question of how much better State can be in an ultra-competitive SEC. Saturday will give us a very good indication of that.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Can Tennessee execute on the road? Josh Heupel’s “road struggles” have been well studied this week. The truth is very few teams play better on the road versus at home. We have seen the Vols sputter at times as road favorites, though. Like Tennessee, Mississippi State starts fast. The Bulldogs have scored a touchdown on their opening possession in every game this season. They have 55 total first-quarter points on the season. The Vols need to at least play even with State in the opening half on Saturday. Big picture, this is a game Tennessee must win to stay in the hunt for the college football playoffs. A win in Starkville would put the Vols in a good overall position heading into their first bye week.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened around -10 or -10.5 last weekend. It now sits at -7.5 at most books. The Over/Under is 63.5. Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS, including an outright win as an underdog. The Vols are 3-1 ATS after failing to cover last week against UAB. The Over has hit in seven of eight games played by these two teams.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Run the ball as much as possible. The Vols have run the ball for just over 216 yards per game, or 5.24 yards per carry, through four games. Mississippi State is giving up 136 yards per game, or 3.90 yards per carry. The Bulldog run defense looks noticeably better than the unit that finished dead last in the SEC last season by a wide margin. Saturday will be their biggest test to date, though. While State scored a big upset win over Arizona State in Week 2, they did give up 251 yards rushing to the Sun Devils. The Vols ran for 240 yards on this defense in Knoxville last season, and the goal will be to control the ground game again on Saturday. How much does that involve Joey Aguilar? The Vols’ quarterback was a willing runner last Saturday against UAB. Tennessee even ran a traditional option play with success. It will be interesting to see if that carries forward into SEC play, or if the Vols were just putting new looks on tape. Otherwise, it will be a lot of Desean Bishop and Star Thomas, with a few appearances by Peyton Lewis. There is so much familiarity between these two coaching staffs that it will be hard for Josh Heupel to surprise State on Saturday. Jeff Lebby knows if he shows a light box, Tennessee will try to take advantage of it on the ground. The availability of Derion Gullette looms large for the Bulldogs. The Texas transfer is one of State’s leading tacklers from the linebacker position. If he is out, expect to see even more of former Vol Jalen Smith. Smith has played a lot of snaps already as a reserve for the Bulldogs, but may be thrust into an even larger role if Gullette can’t go. Tennessee will test the Bulldog linebackers early and often. That ground game has to be the engine for the Vols on Saturday though. It can feed Tennessee’s passing attack. Mississippi State’s secondary is giving up just 4.8 yards per completion on the season, a very stingy number. Tennessee needs to stretch that number out significantly on Saturday. Making State commit extra defenders to the run game is how you do that.
More From RTI: Josh Heupel Says These Traits Will Be Key Against Mississippi State’s Tempo Offense
Matchup to watch on Defense: Limit the big passing play. The Vols have given up nineteen pass plays of 20+ yards, by far the worst in the SEC. Mississippi State has ten 30+ yard passing plays on the season already. Oklahoma transfer Brenen Thompson has been a revelation in Starkville thus far. While only 5’9″, the Texas native has shown a lot of speed lined up on the outside for this offense. Anthony Evans III, a Georgia transfer himself, has put up almost equal production. Like Thompson, Evans has a lot of speed. These Bulldog receivers are just blowing by cornerbacks thus far in 2025. It is a big concern for Tennessee on Saturday afternoon. Colton Hood has been solid overall on the season, but true freshman Ty Redmond has been picked on frequently. Expect that to continue on Saturday. Opponents are completing 67% of their passes against this Tennessee defense, which is currently last in the SEC, surrendering 279 air yards per game. What can Tim Banks do to help out Ty Redmond and Colton Hood? It is certainly a big game for Tennessee’s safeties. It has been a quiet start to the season for both Andre Turrentine and Edrees Farooq. They will have to provide some help over the top on Saturday, even if that comes at the expense of run support. After slowly working his way out of the doghouse, is this a game where Boo Carter can make an impact on defense? Tennessee may have the more talented overall roster, but 2-3 splash plays can be the great equalizer.
Fun Fact: While sometimes associated more with arch-rival Ole Miss, best-selling author John Grisham actually received his undergraduate degree from Mississippi State. Grisham started his collegiate education at community college. He ended up in Starkville after failing to make the baseball team at Delta State University. He would ultimately receive his undergraduate degree from Mississippi State, and a JD from Ole Miss. Grisham was actually an elected official in the Mississippi House of Representatives from 1983 to 1990. It was during this time that he wrote his first two novels. A Time to Kill was published in 1988, with just 5,000 copies printed in its original production. The Firm was published in 1991, and spent 47 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list. It was the first of Grisham’s nearly 50 best sellers, and helped launch a career that has seen over 400 million book copies sold. Grisham’s books have been adapted into nine feature films.
So what happens?: I suspect you will see a fairly high-scoring game in Starkville. I do think this Bulldog defense is much improved. They were so bad in 2024 though that it is fair to look at their early-season numbers with some skepticism. On the flip side, Tennessee is really struggling against the pass so far in 2025. That should not be surprising given the absence of Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III. Saturday will be a big test for this Volunteer secondary. They have to limit the big passing plays, and find a way to create a turnover at an opportune time. With plenty of yardage there for the taking, I will be watching the Red Zone efficiency for both teams on Saturday. State is a perfect 16/16 in the Red Zone, including an 81% touchdown conversion clip. Tennessee has not been perfect, but has been really solid as well through four games. These are offenses that like to play in space, so executing in a condensed Red Zone area can be a challenge against better defenses. Tennessee has to run the football better than the Bulldogs. On paper, it seems like the Vols should have that advantage. Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth are quality backs for the Bulldogs, though. Booth, in particular, had success inside Neyland Stadium last season. Still, State’s rushing numbers are pretty propped up by huge days against Alcorn State (282 yards) and Northern Illinois (292 yards). The Bulldogs struggled running the ball against Arizona State. It is Tennessee’s first true road game, which is always a good test of a team’s maturity. Can the Vols play cleaner football than the Bulldogs despite being on the road? Mississippi State has been the SEC’s most penalized team through four games, 41 total penalties for 356 yards. State have been forced to shuffle their offensive line several times throughout September, and will be without starting right tackle Blake Steen on Saturday. Can Tennessee’s pass rush take advantage of that absence? Both quarterbacks have been operating very efficiently so far in 2025. Whichever defense can force a mistake on Saturday will have a major advantage. Tennessee seems to have the advantage in terms of a pass rush, especially with talented defender Will Whitson out for the Bulldogs. Whitson was brought in to help a defense that registered just 10 sacks in 2024.
I expect a fairly fast-paced first half on Saturday afternoon, and a one-possession game in either direction at halftime. What happens once both offenses run out of scripted drives, and coordinators on both sides start making adjustments? The second half will be played at a slower pace. I think that is when you will start to see an advantage for Tennessee along both lines of scrimmage. The Volunteers will build off the ground game, and work a few longer drives against the Bulldog defense. That physical football will have a larger effect as the game wears on, which will be to Tennessee’s advantage. Blake Shapen will have success against the Volunteer secondary, but Tennessee’s pass rush will produce a big play or two in the second half. It won’t be comfortable, but the Volunteers will utilize ball control to get their first road win of 2025. Vols 34, Bulldogs 28
