After three straight games at Neyland Stadium, Tennessee football heads on the road for the first time this season when they face Mississippi State in Starkville. The Vols are touchdown favorites against Mississippi State as both teams look for their first SEC win.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup. We move on to the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
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Ric Butler
Tennessee faces Mississippi State in its first true road test of the season on Saturday. Mississippi State has been impressive this season, primarily with a win at home against Arizona State. But even with that win and the Bulldogs trending in the right direction… I just don’t see this game being too close. I think that Tennessee is in a strong spot to capitalize on this matchup and pick up a big win on the road.
Arizona State, despite the loss, mauled Mississippi State on the ground. Why can’t the same be true for Tennessee? With a monster duo of Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop, combined with a capable third man with Peyton Lewis, I see Tennessee being able to control the line of scrimmage when it has the ball. Plus, there’s a good offensive line at play. And if Tennessee has the run going, it’ll set up the passing game. State has been good at not giving up explosive plays through the air, but they might be forced to send some extra help into the box to stop the run. That’s where Josh Heupel can pull out his ace cards.
On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee will need to figure out how to stop some big plays. But even if a few do slip through the cracks, I think that Tennessee is the better team in the trenches. Over the course of a four-quarter game, I just have a lot more trust in a UT team that knows how to play four quarters than a MSU team that’s still learning that process. Also, random prediction, but give me a Colton Hood interception in this game.
Joey Aguilar gives me no reason to believe he’ll crumble on the road, while UT’s run game leads me to believe it’ll control the flow of the game. Give me Tennessee up big throughout the game, even if State gets a late touchdown to make the game look closer than it was.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, Mississippi State 27
Ryan Schumpert
Tennessee has had to stew on its rivalry loss against Georgia for two weeks despite taking care of business against UAB last week in Knoxville. The Vols now get the opportunity to go on the road and earn their first SEC win of the season. It’s one they need to get.
It’s also a much harder game than it appeared to be to begin the season. Most sportsbooks had Mississippi State’s over/under at 3.5 before the season. It took the Bulldogs just four games to hit the over, jumping out to a 4-0 start to the season. Wins over Southern Miss, Alcorn State and Northern Illinois were unsurprising but the Bulldogs home win over Arizona State showed that they’re much improved.
Blake Shapen is a veteran signal caller and has played strong football to this point in the season. I do wonder about Mississippi State’s running game. The overall numbers are great but they ran for just 66 yards against Arizona State. On the reverse side, Arizona State ran for 255 yards against the Bulldogs and really gashed them on the ground in the second half.
Those numbers lead me to this— I think Tennessee is definitively better on the line of scrimmage. Maybe even a lot better. Combine advantages on the line of scrimmage with the way Joey Aguilar has played this season, it’s hard not to feel good about Tennessee’s chances to take care of business in this game.
What about Tennessee’s issues on the road? That does concern me. In fact, it concerns me more than anything else here because I believe Tennessee is the better team. The Vols are 7-4 against the spread and 7-4 outright as road favorites under Josh Heupel. That means, when the Vols win as road favorites they cover. I think they take care of business in Starkville, winning and covering.
Prediction: Tennessee 42, Mississippi State 28
Ryan Sylvia
Going into the season, this matchup at Mississippi State became a trendy pick for a trap game. While the Bulldogs aren’t ranked, they are 4-0 and have certainly caught the attention of Tennessee. There’s no excuse for the Vols to go in and not come out firing.
Given the brilliant offensive starts Tennessee has engineered in its first four games, I expect this one to be no different. The Vols, led by Joey Aguilar, who hasn’t had any issue being accurate early in games, will want to strike early on the road to try to deflate an energized crowd. I think they’ll do exactly that, marching down the field for another first-drive touchdown and parlaying that into more points in the first quarter.
The question is how often the defense can get off the field. Tennessee is going to have to stop a formidable rush attack, but is seemingly going to get defensive tackle Jaxson Moi back, which will be huge. If the front can stifle the run, it’ll make it that much tougher for Blake Shapen and company to try to pick on a still banged-up secondary.
While there have been some issues on the road for Josh Heupel at UT, I don’t think this one will follow the same trend as the loss at Arkansas in 2024 or South Carolina in 2022. While Mississippi State did a good job of retooling its personnel and adding talent, the gap between the Bulldogs and Vols should still be noticeable.
Give me Tennessee taking an early lead that it never gives up as it wins comfortably.
Prediction: Tennessee 42, Mississippi State 24
