Tennessee and Alabama will square off in a Top 12 matchup this Saturday night in Tuscaloosa’s Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Third Saturday in October rivalry is always one of the most passionate games of the college football season, but the intensity is ramped up to a new level when both teams are as highly-touted as they are.
Despite Alabama hovering between a 7- and 9-point favorite heading into the game, some analysts are torn on which team will win. Some who are picking Alabama have pointed to the fact that Alabama’s offense should be poised to put up points on Tennessee’s low-ranked defense, while others think that Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar can keep the Volunteers competitive in a road shootout with the Tide.
On3 Sports’ Josh Pate expanded on that thought while doing his preview for the game on the Josh Pate’s College Football Show on YouTube this week.
“Buddy, you want to talk about a glaring mismatch on paper, check out Bama’s wide receiver corps versus Tennessee’s secondary,” Pate said. “This is the No. 15 passing offense in the country versus a pass defense in the 120s. Number 18 in explosive passes versus a defense in the 120s in that category as well.”
That being said, Pate acknowledged that statistics are just written down on a piece of paper. The real contest is played between the white lines on Saturdays. Pate went on to explain one road map for how Tennessee could pull off the upset this weekend in Tuscaloosa.
“Well, how Tennessee wins this game to me, is instead of getting caught up in the storm, you have to kind of create the storm yourself,” Pate said. “You lead the SEC in sacks, do you not? Do you not? Yes, you do. Stats and Info already confirmed. I think, also, there is a world where, you know, Alabama’s been very good at not turning the ball over so far this year. And there’s a world where, you get these stats that are out there in your face and you think, ‘Oh, stats are static. So what is now, always will be.’ But if you watch college football for any length of time, anytime there’s an upset, period, much less one of these big rivalry game upsets, the nature of those outcomes is that you ripped up the stat sheet that Saturday. Something happened in that game that flies in the face of statistical wisdom. That could be one of Tennessee’s edges this Saturday.”
More From RTI: Where the Betting Line Currently Lands For Tennessee at Alabama on Saturday
Pate’s point is that statistics and rankings are not definitive, because then there would be no point in playing the game. Tennessee’s defensive stats haven’t always been the most optimistic this season, but there’s a world where those numbers are thrown out the window if the Volunteers are to pull the upset this weekend.
While Josh Pate is picking Alabama to win the game, he did mention some more things that could go in Tennessee’s favor this weekend. Pate mentioned that Tennessee could have an opportunity to rip off some explosive runs against the Tide’s defense, and that a potential question mark with the health of Alabama running back Jam Miller could upset the balance of the Tide’s offense, shifting Tennessee’s scheme of how to handle Ty Simpson’s group.
Ultimately, Pate thinks that the teams will play a competitive game in the first half before a potential dam-breaking situation unfolds for the Vols in the second half. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Check out Josh Pate’s full 12-minute preview for the Tennessee-Alabama game this Saturday night in Tuscaloosa below:
