One of college football’s best rivalries renews this weekend when Tennessee travels to Alabama on the Third Saturday in October. Both teams enter the game with one loss and can dramatically improve its College Football Playoff chances with a victory.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup. We move on to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
More From RTI: One Area Josh Heupel, Tennessee Football Has Excelled This Season
Ric Butler
Third Saturday in October rolls around once again. I’ve been high on the Vols for every game this season, maybe even picking them to beat Georgia a few weeks ago. I can’t remember. All that is to say that this is probably the week when my optimism is a bit faded.
I think that this game is going to be pretty high-scoring, which would follow the trend of basically every other Tennessee game that we’ve seen so far this year. So for that reason, I’ll start with the offense. The two big things that stand out to me are that Tennessee is going to have to keep Joey Aguilar clean in the pocket, and Tennessee has to be more clean from a penalty and procedural standpoint. Tennessee can’t afford to be putting themselves behind the chains in this one. But going back to Aguilar, I do think this is a game where he can find success. Alabama has a solid secondary, but this just feels like one of those games where Big Game Joe comes out to play. The Vols will have to supplement things with a respectable run game, though.
From a defensive perspective, it’s just hard to see Tennessee’s secondary having a coming out party at this point in the season. Could it happen? Sure. Colton Hood is still a star, but he can only cover one of Alabama’s talented wide receivers at a time. I’m just not sure I have the most trust with the rest of Tennessee’s secondary against this Ty Simpson-led passing game. That’s where the pass rush comes in, though. If there’s any group that’s capable of throwing a complete wrench into this prediction, it’s Tennessee’s SEC-leading pass rush unit. They’re going to need to live in the backfield this game. Even if it’s not sacks, anything to get Simpson uncomfortable should help the secondary. Simpson is cerebral with a clean pocket, but Tennessee’s made those hard to come by for the majority of this season. Can that be the great equalizer against this pass game? Can some timely turnovers/fumbles give Aguilar and his unit bonus possessions to work with? That’s a big way Tennessee could win.
If Tennessee is flying back to Knoxville with a win, I think we’re talking about Aguilar as a folk hero and the Vols’ pass rush as the two biggest keys to that win. And, for the record, I do think that both groups will find success on Saturday night. They’ve been that good. But in a place that Tennessee hasn’t won in 20+ years, I just find it challenging to pick this in favor of Tennessee. I thought it would be a loss at the beginning of the season, and I won’t change that now. But it will be more competitive than I initially gave credit for two months ago.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Tennessee 28
Ryan Schumpert
The dynamics of this rivalry have changed in recent years with Tennessee winning two of the last three matchups and the first game in the post-Nick Saban era. But Tennessee is still looking for its first win in Tuscaloosa since 2003 and it needs to do that to truly change the narrative and the script.
There’s a handful of things that worry me about this matchup for Tennessee. None are bigger than Ty Simpson’s efficiency and his ability to throw the ball over the middle. Tennessee’s defense has been abysmal in zone coverage this season and is liable to have issues over the middle of the field. Can Tennessee’s run defense have its best game to date and keep Alabama in third-and-long? The Vols’ third-and-long defense has not been great but their chances of success are way better if they can get keep Alabama in third-and-long. Alabama wants to play clock control. They want to hold the football and keep it out of Joey Aguilar’s hands. If they win on early downs to set up more manageable third downs, they’ll probably be able to do just that.
On the other hand, Alabama’s pass protection has been spotty at times this season. And Tennessee’s pass rush is one of the SEC’s very best. If the Vols get Alabama in obvious passing situations, they can create havoc. My big question is can they force turnovers when they do that? Simpson has done a great job of protecting the football. Tennessee’s defense has done a great job of forcing turnovers. Something has to give. Tennessee’s offense should be able to move the football in this game. I don’t have a ton of doubt. But can they be consistent and finish drives with touchdowns. Those are the questions I have.
If this game was played on a neutral field, this game would feel close to a toss up to me. Tennessee is capable of winning this game. But they have to play a clean game and not beat themselves. They have struggled to do that this season and on the road in general with Josh Heupel. For all its flaws, Alabama has been extremely tough to beat at Bryant-Denny Stadium under Kalen Deboer. Alabama scores a late game touchdown to win by two scores.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Tennessee 24
Ryan Sylvia
Tennessee fans: If you’re headed to Tuscaloosa this weekend, make sure you pack the cigars. You’re going to need them.
Like most conference games this year and all three SEC matchups for the Vols, I expect this to be a one-possession game that either team has the chance to win down the stretch. I’ll side with Tennessee, either putting together a game-winning drive or staying stout on defense to keep Alabama out of the end zone.
To put themselves in this position, the Vols are going to have to limit the Tide in the run game. While Tennessee has done a poor job of this so far, I’ll bank on there being an improvement in this category. Arion Carter, Jeremiah Telander and the rest of the linebackers need to do better, and the safeties who get rolled into the box need to tackle. I don’t think it’ll be a complete stifling, but it should take a step in the right direction compared to last weekend vs. Arkansas.
On offense, I have no concern that Joey Aguilar and company will move the ball. The quarterback has been unfazed in all of his high-pressure moments, including a big game vs. Georgia and road start at Mississippi State. I also expect Chris Brazzell to get back in the fold. He was consistently double-teamed vs. the Razorbacks, but Braylon Staley showed why that’s not necessarily a valid strategy.
I don’t think it’ll be a shootout of the likes of the 52-49 affair in 2022, but it should be an offensive-centric game, all things considered. Give me Tennessee due to a strong offense, timely defensive turnovers and a bend but don’t break mentality.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Alabama 30
