Tennessee Football’s 5-1 start to the season has the Vols in the conversation for one of the 12 spots in the College Football Playoffs this winter. That being said, though, Tennessee is one of several teams – especially from the SEC – in that conversation. The Southeastern Conference alone has nine teams with fewer than two overall losses and 10 teams with fewer than two conference losses.
But as they say, October is moving month. It’s when the heart of conference schedules starts to heat up, and teams separate themselves from the pack with wins and losses.
Tennessee went through the first half of the season in standard fashion. That’s to say, the Vols beat the teams they were favored against and lost to the one opponent they were an underdog against. But the schedule exponentially ramps up in the back half of the season, starting with a road test at Alabama this weekend in Tuscaloosa.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor ran the numbers for what a win and a loss would do to both Tennessee and Alabama’s playoff chances this weekend. Tennessee’s differential is more drastic, considering the Vols already have one conference loss, while the Crimson Tide remains undefeated in SEC play.
According to the model, Tennessee has a 30% chance of making the playoffs before the game. With a win over Alabama, that number jumps up to 54%. A loss to the Crimson Tide would see Tennessee’s number drop to just 19%.
As for Alabama, it is currently sitting at an 84% chance to make the playoffs. A win over Tennessee would boost the Crimson Tide to 90%, while a loss would drop the team to 66% as it suffers its first conference loss and second loss overall.
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It’s a high-stakes rivalry matchup from the eye test, and the numbers certainly back it up as well.
After the Alabama game, Tennessee will face a second-straight conference road game at Kentucky next Saturday night in Lexington. The Vols then return to Knoxville for a home game against No. 14 Oklahoma.
After an open date following the Oklahoma game, Tennessee will close the season with a home game against New Mexico State for Homecoming, a road game at Florida, and a home game against No. 17 Vanderbilt.
If Tennessee loses on Saturday, the model shows the Vols’ chances dropping to sub-20%. But that’s also factoring in that Tennessee still wouldn’t have a Top 25 win yet. Tennessee could still make a run at the College Football Playoffs with a 10-2 record if it runs the table after losing to Alabama with two Top 25 wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
Obviously, though, that’s not the ideal situation for Tennessee. The ideal situation here would be a statement victory over the Crimson Tide, who have knocked off three straight ranked SEC foes heading into Saturday, to improve to 6-1 with a Top 6 win under its belt. While it might not factor into the computer model, it would also raise Tennessee’s profile in the eye test and give better confidence against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt later in the year.
No. 6 Alabama will host No. 11 Tennessee at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa’s Bryant-Denny Stadium. Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for more coverage leading up to and at the game this weekend.
