Tennessee Football will very likely be playing past the regular season this winter. The question, though, is where?
The Vols are now 5-2 on the season after suffering a loss at Alabama last Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The loss also dropped Tennessee to 2-2 in SEC play, but the Vols have a good opportunity to bounce back with a game against Kentucky this Saturday night in Lexington.
The loss dropped Tennessee off most Week 9 playoff projections, but the Vols still have some opportunities to climb back into things in the final stretch of the season. Tennessee still has a home game against No. 13 Oklahoma on Nov. 1, a road trip to Florida on Nov. 22, and a home game against No. 10 Vanderbilt to close out the season. ESPN’s Heather Dinich tagged Tennessee in the “Work To Do” section of her SEC playoff update on Tuesday, alongside LSU, Missouri, and Texas. She isn’t penning the Vols in the “Would Be Out” category, though.
We’ll keep our eye on the playoff projections each week, but the consensus has the Vols in a traditional bowl game to close out the year at this point in the season.
ESPN analyst Mark Schlabach has Tennessee taking on ACC foe Virginia in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 27, in Jacksonville, FL. The 16th-ranked Cavaliers are 6-1 on the season with a win over Florida State back in late September. Virginia does not have a ranked team left on the schedule, finishing the year with games at Cal, against Wake Forest, at Duke, and against Virginia Tech.
Last season’s Gator Bowl saw No. 16 Ole Miss destroy Duke by a score of 52-20. Tennessee previously defeated Indiana in the 2020 Gator Bowl, but the NCAA vacated the win in the summer of 2023.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has Tennessee taking on a different ACC team in his projection. Bonagura has Tennessee facing off against the Duke Blue Devils in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl from Charlotte, NC, on Friday, Jan. 2. Duke is 4-3 on the year, with remaining games at UConn, against Virginia, at North Carolina, and against Wake Forest on the schedule.
Last year’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl saw Minnesota defeat Virginia Tech by a score of 24-10. Tennessee has not played in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, but the Volunteers did clobber NC State in the Duke’s Mayo Classic from Bank of America Stadium early in the 2024 season.
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USA Today’s Erick Smith has Tennessee staying a lot closer to home in his bowl projection. Smith has Tennessee taking on Nebraska in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville, TN. The Cornhuskers are 5-2 on the season with losses to Michigan and Minnesota. The remainder of Nebraska’s schedule includes games against Southern Cal, at UCLA (hello, Nico Iamaleava), at Penn State, and against Iowa.
Tennessee and Nebraska actually played each other in the 2016 Music City Bowl, with the unranked Volunteers finding a 38-24 win over the 24th-ranked Cornhuskers.
Last season’s Music City Bowl saw Missouri sneak past Iowa by a score of 27-24 in the midstate. Tennessee previously played in the Music City Bowl in Josh Heupel’s first season at the helm in 2021, barely falling to Purdue in a heartbreaking 48-45 overtime defeat.
According to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, Tennessee has an 18% chance of making the playoffs. That’s good for 18th in the country and ninth in the SEC, trailing Alabama at 90%, Texas A&M at 84%, Georgia at 82%, Ole Miss 49%, Oklahoma at 43%, Texas at 39%, Vanderbilt at 34%, and Missouri at 32%.
The good news for Tennessee, though, is that the Vols still have matchups against two of those teams left on the schedule. Who knows if some magic can turn in Tennessee’s direction with the Vols winning out and a little chaos around them in the process.
