The Opponent: The University of Kentucky was founded in 1865 as the Agricultural and Mechanical College of Kentucky. The school began playing football in 1881, and is a charter member of the Southeastern Conference. The Wildcats won their only outright SEC Championship in 1950, an 11-1 team coached by a young Bear Bryant. Kentucky is now coached by Mark Stoops, in his 13th season in Lexington. Stoops’ record in the SEC is 28-65, including 2-15 since October 2023. His $37 million lump sum buyout has been the talk of the Bluegrass State so far this season.
Are they any good?: No, Kentucky is not a good football team. The Cats sit at 0-4 in the SEC, and are scoring just under 16 points per game in conference play. To be fair, there wasn’t much in the way of expectations for Kentucky this season. The Cats finished 1-7 in the SEC last year, losers of 6 of their last 7 overall. Several high-profile players like Dane Key and Barion Brown were picked off in the transfer portal. A ridiculously large buyout is the only thing that kept Mark Stoops employed last off season. All that being said, this is the new look SEC. There are no layups. Kentucky was very unfortunate not to be beat Texas last weekend in Lexington, and they played Ole Miss to within a touchdown at home as well.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Is there a lingering hangover from the Alabama game? Tennessee did not play clean football in Tuscaloosa. They failed to capitalize on opportunities, and let Alabama do exactly the opposite. The Vols can’t let the Tide beat them twice, though. Tennessee’s opponents thus far all rank within the Top 6 in the SEC in terms of scoring offenses. Kentucky is 15th. The Vols need to see their defense get off the field against this Wildcat offense when given the chance. Every game is now a playoff eliminator for Tennessee. They can’t lay an egg in Lexington.
What does Vegas say?: The consensus opening line for this game was Tennessee -8.5. That line sits anywhere from -7.5 to -8.5 at most books now. The Over / Under has increased slightly to 54.5. Kentucky is 2-4 ATS on the season, but has covered both their games as a home underdog. Tennessee has lost four straight games against the spread, and is now 3-4 ATS on the season.
Injury Report: No huge surprise that Jermod McCoy remains OUT, as does freshman receiver Travis Smith. Starting linebacker Arion Carter was listed as QUESTIONABLE, and it would be a big blow for Tennessee if Carter can’t go. Kentucky listed cornerback DJ Waller Jr as DOUBTFUL. The starting cornerback has been nursing a hamstring injury since the season opener. Larger than that is the status of starting running back Seth McGowan who was listed as QUESTIONABLE Wednesday night. McGowan was taken to the hospital during Kentucky’s game against Texas, but actually returned to the field after that visit. He is a major cog in this Wildcat offense.
More From RTI: ‘This Could Be a Tough Game For Tennessee’: Former SEC Coach Has Vols On Upset Alert Against Kentucky
Matchup to watch on Defense: Get stops in the Red Zone. This is a match-up of weakness versus weakness. Kentucky is at the bottom of the SEC in terms of converting Red Zone trips to touchdowns, at 38.5% in conference play. Tennessee’s defense is the worst in Power 4 in terms of allowing touchdowns in the Red Zone, 81%. Something has to give on Saturday night. Coming out of their bye week, the Cats found a nice offensive strategy with their young quarterback, Cutter Boley. Last week against Texas, he took the short throws that the defense gave him, and dinked and dunked his way between the 20’s. That is somewhat concerning against a Tennessee secondary that too often gives receivers plenty of cushion, and continues to struggle with zone coverage. Can the Vols respond once the field compresses? Kentucky running back Seth McGowan is frequently used in the passing game. Tight ends Willie Rodriguez and Josh Kattus are both also very active receivers for the Wildcats. Those are all targets in short Red Zone situations. How do Tennessee’s linebackers and safeties do in coverage on Saturday night? The Vols will need them to play sound football in order to improve what has been a dreadful Red Zone defense so far in 2025.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Let the running game power the offense. Kentucky did a fantastic job limiting Texas to less than 50 yards rushing. That was somewhat of a surprising result, considering the Cats had surrendered over 192 yards per game on the ground in their first three conference games. Texas has also not been a good rushing team this season, nor has their passing game shown much ability to stretch the field. That is not the case with Tennessee. The Vols are yet again running the ball effectively, at over 4.75 yards per carry in SEC play. Before being forced to abandon the run, Tennessee’s backs were finding plenty of success in Tuscaloosa. The Vols have to let the running game lead the offense on Saturday. That was the formula Tennessee used in its last trip to Lexington in 2023. Tennessee’s backs averaged over 6.0 ypc, and ran the ball 37 times. That was compared to just 20 passing attempts from Joe Milton. That production from the run game allowed the Vols to stretch the field, though, as Milton averaged over 11 yards per attempt and over 13 yards per completion. It is unfair to just assume that type of production again, but it is a smart strategy for Tennessee to follow. Let Desean Bishop and the ground game lead the offense into the passing game. Tennessee needs to commit to the run game early and often, and see what opportunities that gives you through the air.
Fun Fact: Mark Stoops is coaching for this job right now. A lot of folks call that pressure, but is it really? Stoops would be owed just under $38 million if terminated, due as a lump sum payment within 60 days. It is yet another reminder that there is no better job than a fired college football coach. It has been wild to see coaching salaries skyrocket in the last 10-15 years. Robert Neyland’s starting salary in 1925 was $750. That equates to just under $15,000 in modern dollars using CPI calculations. In 1995, Bobby Bowden became the sport’s first million-dollar head coach, which would be just over $2 million in modern dollars. That was a time when the average Division I head coach earned just over $400,000. Going into this season, 14 SEC head coaches made over $6.5 million per year. Last season, Kentucky paid Mark Stoops over $2 million per win or $9 million per SEC win. His salary is over 60x the median household income of the state of Kentucky. What a profession!
So what happens?: Tennessee has dominated this series in modern history. A talent advantage has played a large part in that, but Kentucky has also always seemed to make the losing plays in this rivalry. That has been especially true for games in Lexington, where the last four have been decided by less than a touchdown. The Cats came out of their bye week ready to play against Texas, and deserved to win that game. Can Kentucky bring the same effort and focus against Tennessee? Defensively for the Vols, the Cats do not present the same challenge as some of Tennessee’s earlier opponents. A lot of their game plan against Texas was meant to negate the Longhorn pass rush. It worked at times, and the Wildcats did rack up the yardage. Texas still sacked Cutter Boley five times, and pressured him into a bad interception. Kentucky has allowed Boley to be sacked 16 times in four SEC games, and that has to be a major concern with Tennessee’s pass rush. I expect the Vols to be motivated after failing to record a sack against Alabama. On top of sacks allowed, this Kentucky offensive line is giving up 7.5 tackles for loss per game. It is a matchup that Tennessee’s deep defensive line can really take advantage of. I also expect it to help mask some of the Vols’ shortcomings in the secondary. If there is ever a game for Tennessee to abandon some of its zone schemes for more aggressive press-man coverage, this is it.
Mark Stoops has always fielded a stout defense at Kentucky. They have struggled with Josh Heupel’s offenses, though. In every matchup between these head coaches, Heupel’s offense has consistently outpaced the average allowed by Kentucky defenses. That is good to hear for Tennessee fans, because the Cats are giving up less than 16 points per game in SEC play. The Vols will obviously try to push tempo as much as possible on the road, at least to start the game. I do expect Tennessee to find some consistency on the ground, at least 4+ yards per carry. Since 2021, Tennessee’s backs have rushed for 666 yards on 114 carries against Kentucky. That has been 5.85 yards per carry. Yet again, Tennessee will force Kentucky to pick between stopping the run or limiting the downfield passing game.
As mentioned, these games in Lexington always seem to be close. Tennessee has enough firepower to pull away from a very limited Kentucky offense. The question is whether the Vols can play clean football? It will continue to be the question around these 2025 Vols until they show they can. The good news is they don’t need to play spotless on Saturday night to win. I expect Tennessee’s defense to continue the way they have all season. They will give up yards, and frustrating first downs, but they’ll make negative plays. There is a lot of opportunity for those negative plays against this Kentucky offensive line. Pressure on Cutter Boley will lead to at least one impactful turnover. Tennessee’s run defense will have its best game of the season, which will only make life harder for the young Wildcat QB. Offensively, the Vols will run until Kentucky makes the necessary adjustments. That is when you will start to see some big shots downfield, including a big game from Braylon Staley. Tennessee starts to pull away in the 3rd quarter after a 10+ play drive. The Vols survive on the road in an SEC game. Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20
