After a 6-2 start to the season, Josh Heupel’s Tennessee Volunteers have a 23% chance to make the College Football Playoffs, according to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor. The biggest knock on Tennessee, aside from two losses to teams that are squarely ranked and thought of higher, is that the Vols don’t have any ranked wins to this point in the season. That could all change soon, though, considering that two of Tennessee’s final four opponents are ranked in the Top 20, giving the Vols a pair of must-have opportunities to close down the season.
Tennessee will host No. 18 Oklahoma this weekend in Knoxville, which is a team that, coincidentally, sits one spot below the Vols in the playoff chances at 19%. Both teams have two losses on the season, meaning that Saturday’s game will essentially be a College Football Playoffs elimination game. Obviously, crazy things could happen down the road, but no one wants to enter November with three losses.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach says it’s basically now or never for Josh Heupel’s group.
“After falling to Georgia and Alabama, the No. 14 Volunteers probably have no margin for error if they’re going to return to the CFP for the second straight season,” Schlabach wrote. “To knock off the No. 18 Sooners, Tennessee’s defense is going to have to perform better than it did in last week’s 56-34 victory at Kentucky.”
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With a loss to Oklahoma, Tennessee’s playoff chances would essentially plummet. Even if Tennessee went on to beat both Florida and Vanderbilt, the projections have the Vols at just a 5% chance to make the winter tournament. A loss to either Florida or Vanderbilt, even with a win over the other, leaves things at less than 1% chance.
Beat Oklahoma, though, and Tennessee is still controlling its own destiny, theoretically. If Tennessee wins out the regular season and doesn’t play in the SEC Championship game, the projections have the Vols as an 84% chance to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the tournament. That would mean the Vols host in Knoxville.
What about beating the Sooners and Gators but losing to the Commodores? 5% chance of making it. Beating the Sooners and Commodores but losing to the Gators? 7% chance. All this is to say, Tennessee needs to win out with two ranked wins, and that starts with the Sooners this weekend.
Schlabach gave his thoughts on Tennessee’s side of things for the Top 20 matchup this Saturday night in Neyland Stadium.
“Tennessee should have a good chance to get pressure on Sooners quarterback John Mateer, who hasn’t played as well since returning from a broken bone in his throwing hand on Oct. 11,” Schlabach wrote. “In the past three games, Mateer has completed 57.9% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. The Sooners have given up nine sacks in the past three games. The Volunteers rank seventh in the FBS with 3.4 sacks per game.”
The stakes are high, and the margin for error is low. That’s the definition of fall football right there.
Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for more Tennessee Football coverage leading into the game this Saturday night.
