The Opponent: The University of Oklahoma was founded in 1890, before Oklahoma was admitted to statehood in the Union. The school began playing football in 1895, and claims seven national championships. Oklahoma is in its second season as a member of the expanded Southeastern Conference. The school has had seven Heisman Trophy winners, tied with Ohio State and Notre Dame for 2nd all time. Oklahoma is coached by former Kansas State linebacker Brent Venables, in his 4th season in charge in Norman. Previously, Venables served as an assistant coach under Bob Stoops for over a decade before serving as Clemson’s defensive coordinator under Dabo Swinney. This will be the sixth all time meeting between Tennessee and Oklahoma, with the Sooners having a 2-3 edge. Saturday will be Oklahoma’s first game in Neyland Stadium as an SEC team. In 2015, the Sooners won in Knoxville 31-24 in overtime. Tennessee won this matchup 25-15 in Norman last season.
Are they any good?: Yes, Oklahoma is a good football team. The Sooners revamped their offense after a dreadful, injury-riddled season in 2024. They brought in the QB/OC combination from Washington State in John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle. Results have been positive overall, although offensive production has slowed down since Mateer’s thumb injury in late September. Defensively, the Sooners boasted one of college football’s best units in 2024. The numbers have remained solid in 2025, but they just gave up 34 points at home to Ole Miss. No doubt about it though, this would be Tennessee’s best win on the season if the Vols emerge victorious Saturday night.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Can the Vols beat a quality opponent? You can only play who is on your schedule, but Tennessee has yet to beat a good team. The Vols’ three SEC wins are against opponents that are otherwise winless in conference. Oklahoma has a decent home win over Michigan, but otherwise has not beat a good SEC team to date either. The winner of this game will be in the mix when the initial College Football Playoff rankings are released on Tuesday. If that is Tennessee, the Vols then have a bye week and a cupcake game (New Mexico State) to rest up for a home stretch playoff push.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened as Tennessee -2.5 on Sunday. It now sits between -3 and -3.5 at most books. The Over / Under is 56.5. Tennessee is now 4-4 ATS on the season, or 2-2 in home games. Oklahoma is also 4-4 ATS on the season. Saturday will be only the second time Oklahoma has been an underdog this season. The Sooners lost outright, and against the spread, to Texas three weeks ago.
The Injury Report: Arion Carter remains QUESTIONABLE for Tennessee after sitting out the Kentucky game last week. Tennessee’s junior linebacker is thought to be battling turf toe issues. Otherwise, the big news for the Volunteers was the absence of Colton Hood on the initial injury report. That is very good news, as Hood has been a lone bright spot in a secondary that has struggled otherwise. For Oklahoma, starting right tackle Derek Simmons was listed at DOUBTFUL. Simmons missed the Ole Miss game due to an ankle injury. Freshman Ryan Fodje started in his place. Cornerback Gentry Williams was listed as QUESTIONABLE on Wednesday night. Williams also missed last week’s game against Ole Miss, but has started five games for the Sooners on the season.
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Matchup to watch on Offense: Find the balance. It is hard to complain about a 56-point performance in Lexington, one in which you had three receivers go for over 100 yards. Tennessee took what the Wildcats gave them, which was a lot of single-high safety looks, and made downfield plays in the passing game all night long. The Vols will need a more balanced approach to score the requisite number of points against this Oklahoma defense though. The Sooners’ secondary leads the SEC in allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt. On a night where the passing game could do whatever they wanted, the Volunteer backfield only had 121 yards on 28 carries in Lexington. Yes, Kentucky seemed determined to not let the Tennessee ground game get going. It was still an unimpressive effort from the Vols, especially the right side of the offensive line. They have to play better against an Oklahoma defensive front leading the SEC with 89 tackles for loss. The next closest team (A&M) is at 66. Sooner linebackers Kendal Daniels and Kip Lewis have been very active this season, and combined for 18 tackles against Ole Miss last week. Tennessee can’t be predictable with their run game on Saturday, but they have to be effective. They also have to stick with it. With success in the downfield passing game, it can be tempting to abandon the run if you aren’t finding success early on. That mistake would eventually catch up to the Vols though. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a healthy dose of short passes, especially against a Sooner pass rush with 29 sacks on the season.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Find something you can do well, and lean into it. I am at a loss with this unit. Vols just have to play better defense. There certainly are positives, and I can’t ignore those. Tennessee is tied for the SEC lead with 14 turnovers created, and remains towards the top of the conference in terms of sacks and tackles for loss. That is where the good news ends though. Tennessee is giving up 36 points per game in conference play. The Vols are 136th out of 136 teams nationally in terms of Red Zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 82.76% of opponents’ trips. The advanced stats aren’t much kinder to Tennessee. The Vols’ stop rate is just 57.1% on the season, allowing 2.63 points per opponent drive this season. Tennessee finished third nationally in stop rate last year at 76.8%, and just 1.32 points per opponent drive. Everywhere you look, the Vols have taken a major step back from 2024’s unit. That can’t all be fixed in one week though, so where can Tennessee improve in the margins? Simple tackling would be a good first step. Tennessee is giving up way too many yards after the catch, over 200 to Kentucky’s pedestrian receivers last week. Better tackling starts with being in the right position, and it ends with good angles and good effort. Finally, the Vols have to play better in all forms of pass coverage. The zone coverage has created gaping throwing windows. In tighter man coverage, the Vols are being regularly flagged for pass interference downfield. Against softer man coverage, Tennessee is giving up easy completions for 7-8 yards at a time. While you want your defense to be multiple, the Vols could be best served finding anything they can do well and sticking with it. Tennessee has to find ways to get off the field when they aren’t creating turnovers.
Fun Fact: 205 touchdowns or 1,230 points. That is the combined production as college players that Tennessee’s coaching staff put together as Oklahoma Sooners. Josh Heupel famously led Oklahoma to a national championship under Bob Stoops, and was 20-5 as the starting QB in Norman. He had 62 career touchdowns. His fullback, and fellow captain, on that national championship team was Seth Littrell. Littrell had 13 career touchdowns as a Sooner. After being fired as Oklahoma offensive coordinator last year, Littrell is currently a senior offensive analyst for the Volunteers. Another Tennessee analyst, Landry Jones, put up the gaudiest numbers as a Sooner. He had 126 total touchdowns over a four year career in Norman. His backup, Tennessee offensive coordinator Joey Halzle, had 4 total touchdowns. There is a lot of familiarity between these coaching staffs, and a lot of Oklahoma pride on both sidelines. There is also plenty of motivation with Josh Heupel and Seth Littrell, both fired by their alma mater.
So what happens?: Josh Heupel has been phenomenal inside Neyland Stadium after his first season, undefeated outside of Georgia. Saturday night looks to be another sold out, and electric, crowd. The whole Dark Mode theme can also add a little juice. That is all working heavily in the Vols’ favor. Offensively, you have to like the way Joey Aguilar is playing. The Volunteer signal caller has found chemistry with all three of his big game receivers, any of which could break out in this game. Like Tennessee, Oklahoma has a talented and deep pass rush. R Mason Thomas is a name to watch on the edge for the Sooners, with 5.5 sacks on the year. Taylor Wein provides good pressure from the interior. Like Tennessee, the Oklahoma pass rush has somewhat faded in recent weeks after starting the season on a frenetic pace. The Sooner defense clearly feasted on some bad offenses early in the season; Michigan, Auburn, and South Carolina amongst those. How will they match up on the road against an explosive Tennessee offense? I expect Tennessee to find a way to score around 30 points at home, even as the uneven production from the run game continues.
That brings us to the Tennessee defense. John Mateer has not been the same quarterback since coming back from injury against Texas. Mateer’s yards per attempt have dropped slightly since returning. He has not been as effective of a runner either. His decision making even looked off against Ole Miss. Is this Tennessee defense the cure for what ails him though? For the Vols, it starts with defending a Sooner running game that is starting to find its legs in October. Sophomore Xavier Robinson had 109 yards on just nine carries against Ole Miss. He joins freshman Tory Blaylock as an effective running back combination for Oklahoma. Brent Venables and Ben Arbuckle would love nothing more than to take pressure off Mateer with 150+ yards rushing against the Vols. If Tennessee can be more effective against the run, the question then becomes how much they can affect John Mateer with the pass rush. Somewhere on the way to Tuscaloosa, the Vols lost what had been a very productive pass rush. Starting against Alabama, Tennessee went 6+ quarters without a sack before taking down Cutter Boley just once last Saturday. Can the energy inside Neyland Stadium reignite the pass rush for Tennessee? Rodney Garners knows his unit has to play down the stretch. Can the Vols take advantage of two true freshmen tackles for Oklahoma, including one likely to make his first road start? Otherwise, the Sooners have real weapons in Arkansas transfer Isaiah Sategna III and Deion Burks. Sategna has been one of the better home run hitters in college football this season, averaging 14.5 yards per reception.
I am completely torn in my pick for this game, and honestly no result would surprise me. I love the way Tennessee is playing on offense right now, and expect Josh Heupel to bring his best effort against Oklahoma. The Sooner defense will make plays against Tennessee. They will force punts, and probably will even force a turnover. I still struggle seeing Tennessee not scoring 30 at home. That should be enough to win, but Tennessee’s defense is just not inspiring confidence right now. I think the Sooners get steady enough production on the ground to keep Tennessee’s defense guessing. That will allow John Mateer to look closer to the player we saw in September, versus the quarterback on the field last weekend. This game won’t quite be a shootout. The Oklahoma defense makes the extra stop or two. That is the difference. Oklahoma 34, Tennessee 30
