Tennessee basketball tips off the 11th season of the Rick Barnes tenure on Monday night as the Vols host Mercer in a non conference matchup at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center.
Expectations are again high for Barnes’ Tennessee team with the Vols ranking in the top 20 of nearly every preseason rankings and analytical metric. Taking a look at the 2025-26 Vol hoops team.
More From RTI: No. 18 Tennessee Basketball vs. Mercer — How to Watch, Betting Odds, Prediction
One Big Question
Can Tennessee Space The Court Enough?
Tennessee’s Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament each projects as high level scorers who can create their own shot. The question with the Vols’ roster, which showed up in the exhibition loss against Duke, is whether they can space the court well enough around them?
The worry is that teams will be able to pack their defense in the paint and make Gillespie and Ament consistently shoot the ball over them. They’re both good enough to do that effectively but it limits their ceiling if they have to. It will also lead to more nights where the Vols’ offense struggles if they have to rely on jumpers.
Can Tennessee find consistent shooting from the two-guard spot? With two-big lineups will the Vols be able to carve out space for driving lanes? Will a couple of Tennessee’s big men make opponents respect them from three-point range? This is the big question for Tennessee’s offense.
Accolades
Leading Scorer
Ja’Kobi Gillespie: This could be Gillespie or Ament but Gillespie feels like more of a sure thing. He’s played high level college basketball, earning All-Big 10 honors a season ago at Maryland. After averaging 14.7 points a season ago, Gillespie has another gear to his game. His usage rate will be up this season. He leads the Vols in scoring with north of 18 points per game.
Leading Rebounder
Felix Okpara: Okpara was Tennessee’s leading rebounder from last year so this may seem like an easy pick. But I like a lot of what Tennessee has in the front court and think a number of players could contend here. Okpara is the safe pick though. We know he is going to play a ton of minutes and is a strong defensive rebounder.
Leading Assist Man
Gillespie: This is an easy one. Tennessee is going to ask Gillespie to create a lot of offense this season. I don’t think Gillespie averages the the 7.4 assists per game that Zakai Zeigler did a season ago. But Gillespie is going to exceed his 4.8 assists at Maryland. Look for the senior point guard to get six-plus assists per game.
X-Factor
JP Estrella: The redshirt sophomore big man has an offensive skillset that Tennessee hasn’t had since Grant Williams. The 6-foot-10 big man is someone that Tennessee can throw the ball inside to and ask him to both score and facilitate. The question is how consistent can he be in a crowded front court and how often versatile can he be on the defensive end. Estrella can really change Tennessee’s ceiling.
Starting Five Prediction
Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Ethan Burg, Nate Ament, JP Estrella, Felix Okpara
This is not my opening night starting lineup prediction. Call this my start of SEC starting lineup prediction. When healthy, Tennessee played the same starting lineup every game last year. That will not be the case this year. Point guard, three-guard and center will be the same every game. My prediction is that five different players will start at the two and four-spot which means we could see a lot of combinations. Give me Ethan Burg as the guy who settles in at the two-spot while Estrella gives Tennessee enough defensively that they can trust him to play major minutes at the four-spot.
A Bold Prediction
This Is The Best Offensive Rebounding Team Of Barnes’ Tenure
Tennessee has been a good offensive rebounding team in recent years. This one has the potential to be the very best. The Vols did not rebound the ball very well against Duke but it just does not worry me. Tennessee has serious size while Cade Phillips and Jaylen Carey both have pedigree as strong rebounders. In 2022-23, Tennessee posted a 36.4% offensive rebound rate that ranked sixth in the country. This team exceeds that 36.4% rate.
Season Prediction
Tennessee plays five buy games to open the season before playing strong competition in six straight games. The Vols have extremely tough matchups against Houston, Illinois and Louisville. They face lesser power five opponents in Rutgers and Syracuse. The big x-factor is who Tennessee faces in its third game in Las Vegas. Could be another really tough task.
SEC play is SEC play. That is to say, it’s going to be very tough. Tennessee faces Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Alabama twice each. All six games should be tough. The Vols’ home matchups with Texas, LSU and Oklahoma and their road trip to South Carolina are the only ones that look like for sure wins.
Regular Season Record Prediction: 23-8 (12-6 SEC)
