It’s been an up-and-down season for Tennessee football. Even with an early loss to Georgia, expectations quickly grew with the revival of Josh Heupel’s explosive offense. Heading into the contest in Tuscaloosa vs. Alabama, all eyes were fixed on returning to the playoffs.
However, since then, UT dropped frustrating games to the Tide and at home to Oklahoma to all but officially eliminate the team from playoff contention. For a team of Tennessee’s standard, the goal every year is to make the playoffs. Anything short is a disappointment, so fans have the right to be upset that it’s likely off the table with three games to play.
I think it’s important to keep in mind what the preseason expectations were, though. With a turbulent offseason that saw Nico Iamaleava leave in the spring and forced Heupel and company to get a quarterback ready to play in just 100 days, starting safety Jakobe Thomas leave for Miami and star cornerback Jermod McCoy go down with an ACL injury, Vegas set the line at just 8.5 regular-season wins. That line still seems valid.
According to analytics-based site PEARatings, Tennessee is performing nearly exactly to expectations, as well. In fact, the site has the Vols slightly outperforming their preseason expectations.
Ratings Change from Preseason to Week 11 pic.twitter.com/12IJcU5cNi
— PEARatings (@PEARatings) November 3, 2025
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I do think some of the frustration is reasonable, though. All three of the Vols’ losses seemed avoidable. Against Georgia, Tennessee was a fourth-down stop, a two-point conversion stop or made field goal away from winning at home. In the loss to Alabama, maybe UT shouldn’t have won on the road, but it had plenty of chances to keep things close, but shot itself in the foot. Against Oklahoma, it was a prime example of a team getting in its own way and beating itself into a bloody pulp.
If the Vols drop the game on the road at Florida or at home against Vanderbilt, then I also get the disappointment for how this season played out. But for now, given the turmoil of what went into this year, they’re seemingly performing to preseason expectations. There were plenty of people who picked 9-3 going into the year with these exact losses.
The story of the season is not completely written, and one more loss could change things, but it’s not worth hitting the panic button yet. Factor in one of the best recruiting classes in the country on the way to campus next season, and the future still feels bright under Heupel.
