The Opponent: The University of Florida was established in 1853 as the East Florida Seminary in Ocala. It reorganized in Gainesville after the Civil War, and began to take its modern shape in the early 1900’s. Florida is one of America’s largest universities at over 50,000 total students. The school was a charter member of the SEC, and has been playing football since 1906. The Gators claim three national titles, all in the modern era, and eight SEC titles. Florida is currently without a permanent head coach, as Billy Napier was fired in October. Napier amassed a 22-23 overall record in Gainesville, and was just 12-16 in SEC play. At present, the Gators are being coached by Billy Gonzales. The veteran position coach is in his third stop in Gainesville, and was once a member of Urban Meyer’s staff.
Are they any good?: When you look at Florida’s record, the obvious answer is no. The Gators sit at 3-7 overall and 2-5 in SEC play. Their coach got fired in October, and they sit winless in three games under the interim. With their talent level though, it is hard to call the Gators a bad football team. The sum certainly does not equal the parts, but we have seen Florida look very competitive against two playoff teams in the month of November. Florida is yet another reminder that the cellar of the SEC is still a very scary place. There are no gimme games left in the conference, certainly not on the road.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Yes, the Oklahoma loss effectively killed Tennessee’s playoff chances. It did not render the rest of the season completely obsolete though. There is a big difference between 9-3 and 7-5. The Vols can still win in the Swamp for the first time in 22 years. They can still play spoiler to Vanderbilt’s playoff chances next week. Saturday should tell us how locked in and motivated this locker room is for those tasks.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened at Tennessee -3.5 on Sunday, and sits between -3.5 and -4 as of Thursday. The consensus game total is 57.5. Tennessee is now 4-6 ATS on the season, including 1-1 as a road favorite. The Gators are 3-6-1 ATS on the season, but did win outright in their only game as a home underdog against Texas.
Injury Report: Senior tight end Miles Kitselman is officially OUT for the Vols. Starting guard Wendell Moe Jr is listed as QUESTIONABLE, as is running back Peyton Lewis. Moe’s absence would be strongly felt, as the interior of Tennessee’s offensive line has struggled at times recently. For the Gators, it was huge not to see defensive tackle Caleb Banks listed on the injury report. The veteran player appears poised to return to the field for the first time since September. Florida is still without star receivers Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson III, both listed as OUT. Pass rusher George Gumbs Jr is also listed as OUT, a big blow on the edge for Florida.
More From RTI: Tennessee Football Reveals Uniforms For Florida Game in The Swamp
Matchup to watch on Defense: Stop the run. Sophomore Jadan Baugh has had a nice season for the Gators. He will have a chance to crack 1,000 yards total over the next two weekends. Most importantly, Baugh adds nice balance to an offense with limited quarterback play. The struggles of DJ Lagway have been well-documented. He has gone from a Heisman dark horse in August, to a player seemingly in need of a fresh start via the transfer portal. Lagway’s yards per attempt have dropped from 9.9 in 2024 to 6.7 in 2025. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns on the season, albeit most of those have come in bunches. It is still very possible that Lagway has a good game against Tennessee’s secondary, but he is not playing with much confidence right now. Tennessee can’t let Lagway rediscover that confidence on Saturday night. That is why limiting Florida’s run game is so critical for Tennessee. The Volunteer run defense is certainly having a down year, giving up 183 rushing yards per game in SEC play. In their three losses, Tennessee has given up an average of 170 yards rushing. In its three wins, Florida has averaged 177 yards on the ground. In its losses, Florida is rushing for less than 100 yards per game. It will be interesting to see Tennessee’s rotation at linebacker with Arion Carter back and available. Edwin Spillman is playing with much more confidence as the season goes along. So is freshman Jadon Perlotte, who plays fast in open space. How much does the staff trust those young linebackers in pivotal moments, versus veterans in Carter and Telander? The Gators will think they can run the football on Tennessee, and rightfully so. If they can, then life gets a lot easier for DJ Lagway, and a lot harder for the Volunteers.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Protect the football. Joey Aguilar has five total turnovers in his last two games. While the Volunteer quarterback is still finding receivers downfield, he has also been putting the ball in harm’s way recently. Joey Aguilar knows he has to protect the football better for Tennessee to win on Saturday. Most of Aguilar‘s recent mistakes are self-inflicted, but poor past protection certainly does not help a quarterback limit turnovers. That is why the health of Wendell Moe Jr looms large over this game. The reality is the interior of Tennessee’s offensive line has not been playing well as of late. That is a major concern against a solid Gator defensive front, one that welcomes Caleb Banks back this weekend. On the season, Florida has not been great at rushing the quarterback. They have just 21 sacks through 10 games, and will be without pass rusher George Gumbs Jr. However, the Gators got to Trinidad Chambliss 5 times last Saturday, so it is a pass rush that could be discovering some confidence late in the season. If Tennessee can give Joey Aguilar time, there are plays to be made on this secondary. In SEC play, the Gators have given up 26 completion of 20+ yards and 8 completions of 40+ yards. Both of those have them ranked at the bottom of the conference. The identity of this year’s Tennessee offense is slinging the ball downfield, and creating those home run connections. That is not going to change over the last few games. Joey Aguilar has to play smart though, and can’t force plays that aren’t there.
Fun Fact: 15. That is the number of visiting teams that have won inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since the Vols last won in the Swamp in 2003. That includes 11 other SEC teams plus Miami, FSU, USF and Georgia Southern. That is every single SEC team outside of Oklahoma and Texas. Georgia is not included given that is a neutral site game.
So what happens?: Tennessee can not expect Florida to lay down and quit on Saturday night. The reality is outside of the Kentucky game, the Gators have been competitive into the 4th quarter against every opponent this season. This is also Florida’s first home game since October 18th, so expect a great crowd for a night game. The Gators have not given up more than 21 points in any home game this season. Meanwhile, there have been some signs of life from Tennessee’s defense in recent weeks. It is still a shadow of the 2024 unit, but the Vols continue to create turnovers and negative plays. That is something to watch against a Florida team with 16 turnovers in seven SEC games. If the Vols can pressure him, then DJ Lagway will put the ball in harm’s way. That could be a challenge though, as the Gators have only given up two sacks in their last 3 games.
When it was at its best, this was a rivalry decided by whichever team ran the football better. In that regard, I think Saturday night could be a bit of a throwback game. It does not grab many headlines, but this has easily been Josh Heupel’s worst rushing team at Tennessee. Outside of Arkansas, the Vols have not rushed for 150+ yards against any SEC opponent. Florida has struggled to stop the run recently though, allowing 233 yards rushing to Kentucky and 237 to Ole Miss. Can the Vols take advantage of those struggles, or do the Gators stiffen up playing at home? That is a key to this game. I would not be surprised to see Tennessee go less rotational on Saturday, especially with the nagging injury to Peyton Lewis. DeSean Bishop actually tied a career high for rushing attempts against NMSU last weekend with 16. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number eclipsed on Saturday night, which would probably be a good sign for the Vols.
I expect this to be a close game going into the 4th quarter. Neither fan base will feel good about that. The Vols have 20+ years of demons to exercise in the Swamp. The Gators have scored just 20 total 4th quarter points in nine games against FBS opponents this season. Something has to give. I like the big play ability of Tennessee’s wide receivers in this game. They create the biggest mismatch in this game, and the ultimate difference maker. I will predict a big passing play for Tennessee down the stretch, and one DJ Lagway turnover in the 4th quarter.
Tennessee 30, Florida 24
