Tennessee returns to Neyland Stadium for its regular season finale against Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon. The Vols are trying to cap off the regular season with a second straight win while Vanderbilt is looking to clinch a 10-win regular season and a potential College Football Playoff appearance.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup. We move on to the Vanderbilt Commodores.
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Ric Butler
Biggest game in the history of the series on a cold afternoon in Knoxville. Should be a memorable one for the Volunteer State as a whole. There’s a lot on the line for both programs here. More tangibly for Vanderbilt with a resume-boosting win for a potential spot in the playoffs, but there’s still a huge amount of pride and in-state momentum with a win for whoever can grab it. Vanderbilt clearly doesn’t like Tennessee (see Netflix doc.), and I can’t imagine the Vols are big fans of the Commodores. I expect a gritty game.
I was impressed with the way that UT came out against Florida last weekend. It made me confident that Tennessee’s going to come out strong against the ‘Dores, too. Not that that guarantees a win, but I don’t believe that UT will just roll over either.
On defense, it’s obviously about slowing down Diego Pavia. I don’t think you can fully stop him, so how can UT potentially get him off rhythm? I’m curious about what sort of scheme Tennessee runs or rotates through. A spy would help keep his legs in check, but you’re also taking away a rusher or a pass defender. Does Tennessee load the box? Do their drop guys back? We’ll see what Tim Banks has in store.
At this point in the season, I think Tennessee knows what it wants to do offensively with the weapons it has. And Ethan Davis’ move to the starting lineup as an injury replacement helps with that versatility. Now it’s just about putting all that together without turning the ball over in the process.
I see a high-scoring game. Both teams will put the ball in the endzone, and the score could rise up with some explosive plays to shorten drives. But, with a home crowd behind them, I think Tennessee gets it done. Josh Heupel was in his bag last week, and maybe that helps get a win on Saturday.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, Vanderbilt 35
Ryan Schumpert
Tennessee is looking to extend its six-game winning streak against its instate rival on Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium. But this is a much better Vanderbilt team than Tennessee has faced in recent years. It’s even a much better team than Tennessee faced a season ago when they punched their ticket to the playoffs with a win in Nashville.
Vanderbilt’s offense has taken a step forward this season with an improved skillset around him this season. The Commodores offensive line is one of the oldest in the sport and better than it was a season ago when Tennessee’s defensive front largely controlled the game. The Commodores running scheme will force Tennessee to play gap sound football. That’s an area where Tennessee struggled earlier this season but has been much better as of late. Then when Diego Pavia drops back, Tennessee has to contain his legs and get him on the ground when they have a chance.
The Commodores’ defense has looked more vulnerable this season. Vanderbilt has struggled to defend good passing offenses and Tennessee has the playmakers on the edge to give the Commodores fits. Tennessee needs to capitalize on its scoring chances and take care of the football.
Vanderbilt has also suffered both of its losses on the road. They seem more vulnerable away from home, especially in a poor showing against Texas. Tennessee defends its home field.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 27
Ryan Sylvia
Maybe recency bias is playing too much of an effect, but I really like Tennessee’s chances to beat Vanderbilt on Saturday. It won’t be easy, and the Vols will have to play well, but any question about motivation or effort was clearly answered during the beatdown in The Swamp last Saturday.
The key is obviously stopping Diego Pavia. With his ability to extend plays and hurt you with his arm when things break down, it’s not as simple as putting a QB spy on him, either. This year, he’s got really strong weapons to help him out, as well. While it wasn’t as tough of a challenge, I thought Tennessee did a great job limiting John Mateer when Oklahoma came to town. If they can stay strong in those similar principles, the defense could step up enough to limit Pavia.
On offense, I have full faith that Joey Aguilar and the Vols will move the ball. Aguilar will have to avoid turnovers, which he did last week, but it is still the biggest hindrance right now. I have to like the odds that UT gets the ball moving through the air to its trio of receivers, and the emergence of tight end Ethan Davis adds a whole new element on top of that.
If Tennessee can take another early lead, it may force Pavia and company to start to pressing with their season on the line. That’s when I think the Vols take advantage and win the turnover margin en route to a comfortable win.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 17
