Lady Vols Basketball Drop a Projected Seed in Updated Bracketology Ahead of SEC Play

KNOXVILLE, TN – December 22, 2025 – Guard Mia Pauldo #13 of the Tennessee Lady Volunteers during the game between the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and the Tennessee Lady Volunteers at Food City Center in Knoxville, TN. Photo By Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

SEC play has finally arrived for Lady Vols basketball. Tennessee has concluded its pre-conference slate, but it wasn’t without taking some bumps along the way. UT currently sits at 8-3 with blowout losses to UCLA and Louisville and a narrow one to NC State. The lone quality win is over Stanford on the road.

As a result, the Lady Vols have dropped down to a 6-seed in ESPN’s updated NCAA Tournament bracketology. The reasoning is largely due to the recent loss to Louisville in Brooklyn.

“The opener between Louisville and Tennessee was the more impactful game,” ESPN’s Charlie Creme wrote. “Since the season started, both teams figured to be in the mix for a top-four seed; and as the first two months unfolded, the Cardinals and the Lady Volunteers lingered on the top-16 bubble. Louisville’s decisive 89-65 win Saturday shifted positioning for each, and it will be a game the Cards point to when big decisions are made in March. Louisville is now solidly inside the top 16, while the Lady Vols have some ground to make up during SEC play. The conference is deep, but with losses to Louisville and NC State, a sixth- or seventh-place finish might no longer be good enough to get first- and second-round NCAA tournament games in Knoxville.”

More From RTI: Everything Lady Vols HC Kim Caldwell Said After Win Over Southern Indiana

In ESPN’s projection, Tennessee would open the tournament with a trip to College Park, Maryland, to play the play-in winner between 11-seed Syracuse or BYU. If the Lady Vols won, they’d likely then play 3-seed Maryland on its home court.

A trip back to the Sweet 16 would send UT to Fort Worth in this projection. Likely opponents are 2-seed TCU or 7-seed Princeton in that round. Other teams that could be in the way of a Final Four run would be 1-seed Texas and 4-seed Notre Dame.

Most recently, the Lady Vols downed Southern Indiana 89-44 at home on Monday night. Tennessee started slow, but used a strong second half to coast to a win.

“I thought we played harder tonight,” Lady Vols head coach Kim Caldwell said after the game. “I thought we shared the ball better. I’m happy with 19 assists. We were not very efficient around the rim, but our three looked a little bit better in the second half. I thought we responded well after a difficult first half.”

Next, Tennessee has a matchup with Florida to begin SEC play. The game will be played in Knoxville on Jan. 1 at 2 p.m. ET. It will air on SECN+. Then, it’s a trip to play Auburn on Jan. 4.

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