I Simulated Tennessee Basketball’s March Madness Run Heading Into the SEC Tournament

Bracketology Rick Barnes
Photo By Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

The college basketball regular season is in the books. Now, Tennessee basketball is preparing for its upcoming SEC Tournament run, which will begin next weekend.

The Vols earned the 5-seed in the conference tournament, opening up on Thursday against the winner between 12-seed Auburn and 13-seed Mississippi State at around 3 p.m. ET. The game will air on SEC Network. The winner of that game meets 4-seed Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals on Friday.

UT is also hoping to get its star freshman forward, Nate Ament, back from injury for the trip to Nashville. He has missed the previous two games after suffering a leg injury in the loss to Alabama last Saturday.

“I do (expect him to play),” Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes said. “And I’ve told you guys, Nate wants to play. Obviously, we’re going to listen to our doctors and play the long game with it, I guess, is what we would do. But again, Nate is a tough kid. And if it were up to him, there’s no doubt he would’ve played against South Carolina, he would’ve played tonight. But we listened to the doctors. And I think he would tell you he’s feeling better. But the tough part this time of year, knock on wood. He’s got to practice. He hasn’t done anything in practice since the last game.”

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While the SEC Tournament is next on the docket and could be critical in the Vols’ seeding, the season will always be judged by what happens in March Madness. Currently, EvanMiya projects Tennessee to earn a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament, which is historically a popular spot for an upset.

With just the SEC Tournament remaining, I simulated the Vols’ March Madness run to see where EvanMiya’s analytics have UT finishing.

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More From RTI: LOOK: The 2026 SEC Tournament Bracket, Championship Paths Officially Revealed

Here are the results of five simulations on EvanMiya.com.

Simulation 1

  • Result: Round of 64
    • (Round of 64) Loss to 12-seed USF

Simulation 2

  • Result: Sweet 16
    • (Round of 64) Win over 12-seed USF
    • (Round of 32) Win over 4-seed Gonzaga
    • (Sweet 16) Loss to 1-seed UConn

Simulation 3

  • Result: Round of 32
    • (Round of 64) Win over 12-seed USF
    • (Round of 32) Loss to 4-seed Gonzaga

Simulation 4

  • Result: Final Four
    • (Round of 64) Win over 12-seed USF
    • (Round of 32) Win over 13-seed Utah Valley
    • (Sweet 16) Win over 1-seed UConn
    • (Elite Eight) Win over 6-seed St. John’s
    • (Final Four) Loss to 1-seed Duke

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Simulation 5

  • Result: Round of 32
    • (Round of 64) Win over 12-seed USF
    • (Round of 32) Loss to 13-seed Utah Valley

More to follow: NFL betting apps

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