Tennessee basketball is back in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, looking to return to the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season. The six-seed Vols are preparing to face a resurgent three-seed Virginia in Ryan Odom’s first season as head coach.
Here are the RTI staff predictions for the opening round NCAA Tournament matchup.
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Ric Butler
This is an awful close betting spread for a 6-3 matchup. Tennessee being the slight favorite indicates that we should be in for a good one tonight in Philadelphia.
I think Tennessee’s role players have a chance to play a big factor in this game. We know what Ja’Kobi Gillespie can do if he finds his stride, but Nate Ament is still playing through injury and hasn’t looked like himself in the last two games. It’s hard to project what Ament’s production will look like, so it’ll be extra important for Tennessee’s role players around Gillespie to step into the moment. That includes Amari Evans, JP Estrella, DeWayne Brown, and the others that you’d expect. Tennessee can really help itself out by finding something to supplement and add to Gillespie’s game.
I didn’t expect to go into this game picking Tennessee, but I think I’m going to lean that way just a few hours out. I know the competition was far different in hindsight, but I was impressed with how Tennessee played against the RedHawks. A lot of this prediction rides on Ament’s availability and production on Sunday. If he’s playing effectively, I think Tennessee has every fair shot to win. If he’s on the more limited side, it could favor Virginia advancing to the next weekend. My big concern, as we’ve seen this year, is Tennessee starting off hot and then cooling down in the second half. But I’ll slightly lean towards the Vols in a slow, low-scoring contest.
Prediction: Tennessee 68, Virginia 67
Ryan Schumpert
Here we are. I’ve said since January that I thought Tennessee would get to the Round of 32 and play a toss up game against an opponent similar to itself. Here we are. The six-seed Vols are 1.5-point favorites against three-seed Virginia. A true toss up game.
Virginia has not won 30 games by accident. This is a good team. They space the floor, shooting and making a lot of three-pointers while ferociously attacking the glass. Leading scorer Thijs De Ridder is a 6-foot-9 forward who presents a real matchup problem for Tennessee. They have no true star guards but a trio that are all capable of going off on any given night. Then defensively, Virginia has terrific rim protection with Ugonna Onyeso. Even when the nation’s second leading shot blocker is on the bench, backup center Johann Grunloh does a fantastic job of defending the rim.
But Virginia has its flaws too. They’re not great at taking care of the ball or forcing turnovers. Tennessee needs to come into this game locked in and not have careless turnovers. Virginia is also not good at getting to the free throw line which presents a good opportunity for a physical Tennessee defense.
This game is a true toss up. But Nate Ament being banged up, Thijs De Ridder presenting matchup problems and Virginia’s rim protection makes me side with the Cavaliers.
Prediction: Virginia 71, Tennessee 68
