Tennessee basketball is back in the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season but this time as an underdog as they prepare to face two-seed Iowa State on Friday night in Chicago.
The Cyclones enter the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament boasting a 29-7 record and have been one of the nation’s best teams all season. But there are areas Tennessee can potentially exploit against Iowa State and one pitfall they must avoid. Let’s take a look.
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Singular game statistics drawn by Bart Torvik. Year long statistics drawn by KenPom
Iowa State Has Struggled When They Can’t Keep Opponents Off The Glass
There’s one common theme in Iowa State’s seven losses this season— they have struggled on the defensive glass. In all seven games, the Cyclones opponents posted an offensive rebound percentage over 31%. Iowa State is just 6-7 in games its opponents rebound 31% or more of its misses.
That presents an opportunity for a Tennessee team that rebounds 44.8% of its missed shots and ranks tops nationally in the statistic. There’s been only two games this season, a neutral site loss against Kansas and SEC Tournament win over Auburn, where the Vols have rebounded fewer than 31% of their missed shots.
As a whole, Iowa State has been a solid defensive rebounding team. But it’s been a weakness in its losses and Tennessee should be able to exploit it.
Tennessee’s Two-Point Defense Could Bode Well
Iowa State is 4-5 in games it shoots less than 50% from the field this season. In one of its two other losses, the Cyclones shot exactly 50% from the field.
T.J. Otzelberger’s squad shoots the ball really well from three-point range but so much of it is predicated in their ability to play inside out. Tennessee should be able to pose a threat to that. Over the course of the season, Tennessee’s opponents are shooting just 49% from two-point range. The mark was not quite as strong in SEC play when the Vols’ opponents shot 52% from two-point range.
This is where Joshua Jefferson’s status is so important. He’s Iowa State’s best two-point scorer but also has the perimeter shooting to take Felix Okpara out of the paint.
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Taking Care Of The Basketball Is Tennessee’s Toughest Task
The first two are Iowa State weaknesses that Tennessee could exploit. This is the opposite. Iowa State’s greatest strength is its ability to force turnovers whereas Tennessee has struggled to take care of the basketball for extended stretches this season.
Iowa State is 21-3 in games when its opponent turns it over on 20% of its possessions or more. Tennessee has turned it over on over 20% of its turnovers in nine games this season, posting a 5-4 record in those contests.
The Cyclones are 8-4 in games their opponents turn it over on fewer than 20% of the possessions. Tennessee is 19-7 when it turns it over on less than 20% of its possessions.
The numbers aren’t quite as jarring here as the first two stats but it is enough to show the importance. If Jefferson is out, Iowa State will be more dependent on forcing turnovers and scoring in transition.
