ESPN’s Bill Connelly released the debut version of his 2026 SP+ rankings on Friday, showing a glimpse at how the analytics view all 138 college football teams at this point in the offseason.
For those who don’t follow the SP+ rankings, it is a purely statistical tool to project how teams will shake out with their current rosters. Connelly writes that the SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” and is a “predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking.”
The rankings, which are said to be early offseason power rankings based on current rosters, have four primary factors that go into the measurements: returning production, recent history, recent recruiting, and coaching change effects. Tennessee, obviously, has some important notes in all four categories that we’ll get to later on.
Tennessee lands as the No. 15 team in the SP+ rankings, coming in one spot behind Michigan and one spot ahead of Ole Miss. The Vols have a 16.0 overall rating, and the Wolverines and Rebels are only 0.1 different in each direction. For comparison, Ohio State’s top spot on the list is a 31.8 rating.
Tennessee also boasts the No. 4 offensive rating, the No. 50 defensive rating, and the No. 34 special teams rating. The Vols are the seventh highest-ranked team from the SEC, behind No. 4 Georgia, No. 6 Texas, No. 9 Texas A&M, No. 10 LSU, No. 11 Alabama, and No. 12 Oklahoma.
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As far as returning production goes, Tennessee still has some key pieces from last year’s team. Despite losing impact players such as Joey Aguilar, Chris Brazzell, Lance Heard, Colton Hood, and Bryson Eason, Tennessee has a lot of returning production back in Knoxville. Some of those players include Mike Matthews, Braylon Staley, DeSean Bishop, Ethan Davis, Arion Carter, Ty Redmond, and Daevin Hobbs.
Recent history takes a look at the overall “program health,” according to Connelly. And despite a disappointing season last year, Tennessee is just two years removed from a trip to the College Football Playoffs. In Josh Heupel’s five seasons at Tennessee, he’s got four bowl appearances highlighted by an Orange Bowl victory in 2022, and one CFB appearance. Tennessee is 45-20 in Heupel’s five seasons in Knoxville.
Recent recruiting is a strong pull for the Vols’ SP+ rankings. Tennessee hauled in a Top 10 2026 recruiting class according to ESPN, Rivals, 247Sports, and 247Sports Composite. That included five-star prospects such as QB Faizon Brandon, WR TK Keys, and OL Gabriel Osenda.
The final thing that went into the SP+ rankings was coaching change effects. It’s a bit unclear whether this only counts new head coaches or includes assistants as well. Either way, though, Tennessee overhauled its defensive staff with offseason changes. The Vols brought in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Penn State, co-DC and safeties coach Anthony Poindexter from Penn State, cornerbacks coach Derek Jones from Virginia Tech, and LEOs coach AJ Jackson from Penn State.
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