Tennessee baseball’s 2026 NCAA Tournament draw is set. The Vols are headed to the Chapel Hill Regional as a 2-seed, where they’ll open up with ECU. The other pair of teams are the host squad, North Carolina, and VCU.
What are the chances that Tennessee survives and returns to yet another super regional, though? Analytics site PEARatings, has set percentages for each team’s chance to win their regional. For the Vols, they have a 26.9% chance to advance. Among 2-seeds across the 64-team bracket, this is tied for the fifth-best mark of the 16 teams.
Naturally, North Carolina has the best odds to win the Chapel Hill Regional at 65.5%. ECU is at 6.9% and VCU is at 0.8%.
Regional Win Probabilities
This expects 11 hosts to advance, up from the nine last year. Lincoln and Hattiesburg with the highest chances of a 3/4 seed advancing. Kansas as the most balanced regional via TSR. pic.twitter.com/9o4GObmAvW
Advertisement— PEARatings (@PEARatings) May 25, 2026
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To win the national championship, Tennessee has the 14th-best percentage at 0.9%. This is notably above the likes of Oregon, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma and more.
To make the final series, PEARatings has the Vols at 2.4%. That is also tied for 14th in the country. The chance to make the College World Series and return to Omaha for the first time since the 2024 national championship season, the site has Tennessee at 12.1%.
The favorite to win the championship is Georgia Tech, followed by UCLA. That’s a flip of the seeding by the NCAA, which has the Bruins at No. 1 and the Yellow Jackets at No. 2. Behind that pair is Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Auburn, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Florida, Alabama, West Virginia, Florida State, Southern Miss and then the Vols.
Odds to Win Championship
Georgia Tech overtakes UCLA with the best odds to win the National Championship. Still Georgia Tech/UCLA/Georgia against the field from TSR’s point of view. https://t.co/hRZvbflUzz pic.twitter.com/rWug7WcrRb
— PEARatings (@PEARatings) May 25, 2026
