As the offseason begins to wind down, analysts around the sport are starting to look into the top college football teams around the country to gauge their potential for a run to the national championship during the 2026 season. You’ve obviously got your top contenders, such as Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame, followed by the second-tier teams such as Texas A&M, LSU, and Miami. But then you’ve got your under-the-radar teams, too.
Just last week, CBS Sports tagged Tennessee football as a Dark Horse to make the College Football Playoffs.
But with a Big Orange offseason that’s full of unanswered questions, what exactly has to go right for Tennessee to be that dark horse team and make a run to the CFP and beyond? Some of the topics are obvious, but some are a little more hidden in the hype.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly gave his four “If” traits for how Tennessee can become a national title contender this season. Essentially, it boils down to the four questions that need to be answered in a positive way for the Vols to break out on the scene. Here are Tennessee Football’s four categories from Connelly:
“If… Josh Heupel Has a Quarterback: Why aren’t the Volunteers generating more buzz? Because the starting QB probably will be either redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or true freshman Faizon Brandon. Both are former blue-chippers, but they’ve combined for 69 career yards, and the Vols are scheduled to play four projected top-11 teams.”
The biggest question that has surrounded UT this offseason is the quarterback topic, so it’s no surprise to see it top the list here. On one hand, it’s not an easy task to throw a freshman quarterback into a new nine-game SEC schedule with how advanced the game has become. On the other hand, though, Josh Heupel has been the quarterback whisperer for much of his career. Can Heupel and company find the recipe for success again this season?
“If… A Young Defensive Line Holds Up: Tackle Daevin Hobbs and transfer end Jordan Norman (Tulane) are nearly the only semi-proven options, and youngsters such as tackles Xavier Gilliam (Penn State) and Isaiah Campbell, and ends Mariyon Dye and maybe freshman Carter Gooden must come through.”
One of the most underrated talking points this season has been the depletion of Tennessee’s defensive line, which only became worse when UT parted ways with transfer EDGE rusher Chaz Coleman. Tennessee has recruited well at the position, and Rodney Garner is still an elite DL coach, but it’s probably something that needs to be talked about more heading into the season.
More From RTI: Why Josh Heupel Believes Tennessee Players Are Quickly Picking Up Jim Knowles’ Defense
“If… The Portal Delivered a Secondary: Sophomore corner Ty Redmond is a potential star, but six of last season’s top eight DBs are gone, and two to four transfers could start. Safety TJ Metcalf (Michigan), corner Jadais Richard (Miami) and nickel Qua Moss (Kansas State) are exciting, but the Vols need a high hit rate here.”
Entering the offseason, there was a belief that Tennessee didn’t just need to acquire a few defensive backs, but sort of go overboard with it. They did. This gives Tennessee a ton of flexibility and competition during the offseason to see which players rise to the top. There’s an argument to be made that despite last year’s troubles, this could be an area of strength for the Vols in 2026.
“If… Knowles Doesn’t Need a Year: Knowles has crafted brilliant defenses at Duke, Oklahoma State and Ohio State, but he needed a year to figure things out in each instance, and in his only season at Penn State, the Nittany Lions dropped from fourth to 23rd in defensive SP+.”
While Knowles is widely regarded as a high-level defensive coordinator, there’s conversation around the fact that his scheme takes a year or so to fully sink in. The topic was even brought up to Josh Heupel during SEC Media Days on Monday. But as Heupel alluded to in his answer, Tennessee put itself in a good position by bringing multiple Penn State coaches and players with Knowles to ease the transition. Will this be enough to expedite the starting point in comparison to past history? We’ll have to wait and see.
It seems simple enough, but it’s four ifs with varying degrees of difficulty. It’s also a lot to ask for. But that’s why you play the games, and we’ll find out just what Tennessee looks like in less than 50 days.
Check out Bill Connelly’s full preseason IFs list here.
