The College Football Playoffs are the goal for every team preparing to step foot on a field later this fall. Twelve teams will make it in, a few will be left heartbroken on the doorstep, and the rest will be well on the outside looking in.
In Josh Heupel’s five years at Tennessee, the Vols have made it to the CFP one time back in 2024. This tenure does include the switch from a four-team playoff to a 12-team playoff, though, which happened in that 2024 season. The Vols were the 9-seed and lost to eventual national champion Ohio State in the first round.
As the preseason starts to draw near, Tennessee doesn’t have the greatest chances to make the College Football Playoffs in 2026. But the Vols are listed in the Top 20.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Tennessee has a 20% chance to make the playoffs, which is the 19th-highest in the nation. The Vols sit one spot behind Penn State at 22% and one spot above SMU at 18%.
Tennessee’s percentage is the eighth-highest from the SEC, meaning the Vols are squarely in the middle of the pack. The Vols sit behind No. 3 Texas, No. 5 Georgia, No. 9 Alabama, No. 10 LSU, No. 11 Texas A&M, No. 12 Oklahoma, and No. 16 Ole Miss.
Here’s a look at how ESPN’s Football Power Index data sees the SEC’s playoff chances:
- Texas: 70.2%
- Georgia: 63.9%
- Alabama: 41.4%
- LSU: 39.5%
- Texas A&M: 38.8%
- Oklahoma: 28.2%
- Ole Miss: 22.5%
- Tennessee: 20.4%
- Florida: 15.1%
- Missouri: 12.4%
- Auburn: 12.0%
- South Carolina: 10.8%
- Vanderbilt: 6.8%
- Kentucky: 2.2%
- Arkansas: 1.7%
- Mississippi State: 1.7%
College football is only one month away 👀
According to ESPN Analytics’ Football Power Index, these teams have the best chance to reach the College Football Playoff ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/rcyyM4rz19
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) July 27, 2026
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There are a few noteworthy aspects to this list. First and foremost, you see two of Tennessee’s annual rivals, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, as two of the bottom four teams. The data clearly isn’t very high on Kentucky’s first year under new head coach Will Stein, and doesn’t project Vanderbilt to be anywhere close to the 10-3 record it had last season.
Excluding Lane Kiffin, who moved from Ole Miss to LSU, Florida’s Jon Sumrall is the highest-ranked new SEC coach on the list. He arrived in Gainesville this offseason after leading Tulane to a spot in the College Football Playoffs last season. Auburn’s Alex Golesh, formerly with South Florida, is just two spots behind Sumrall. Golesh served as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in 2021 and 2022, Josh Heupel’s first two years on Rocky Top.
During the new nine-game SEC schedule, Tennessee will play these teams on the list: No. 1 Texas, No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 LSU, No. 5 Texas A&M, No. 11 Auburn, No. 12 South Carolina, No. 13 Vanderbilt, No. 14 Kentucky, and No. 15 Kentucky.
Essentially, from a CFP projections perspective, Tennessee is playing four of the top five teams in the conference and five of the bottom six teams in the conference.
Here’s a look at Tennessee Football’s full schedule for the 2026 season:
