ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are out this summer, with Tennessee boasting an impressive ranking coming off its trip to the playoffs last season.
According to ESPN, the FPI rankings are “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is,” and is based on 20,000 simulations of the season.
Tennessee boasts an FPI score of 17.4, which is good for 10th in the nation and sixth in the SEC. The FPI score sets up Tennessee with an 8.7-3.4 projected win-loss record and a 38.5% chance to make the playoffs.
The ESPN’s computer-generated FPI has been updated for the 2025 College Football season… pic.twitter.com/bt33AFt884
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) June 3, 2025
Pre season SEC rankings from ESPN FPI.
What did they get wrong? pic.twitter.com/LtVUlUCz1Z
— College Football Live (@CollegeFBonX) July 5, 2025
More From RTI: New Tennessee Football Quarterback Joey Aguilar Already Volunteering at Local Children’s Hospital
It feels likely that these statistical projections will change a good bit heading into the season, but that’s where everything ranks here in July.
Tennessee’s ranking is a bit higher compared to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings at the start of spring camp, which had the Vols ranked at No. 13 in the nation and No. 6 in the SEC. Connelly’s SP+ rankings are based on three factors: “1. Returning production, 2. Recent Recruiting, and 3. Recent history.” It is notable that Connelly’s projections came out when Tennessee still had then-returning quarterback Nico Iamaleava on the roster. After the divorce with Iamaleava right before the spring game in April, Tennessee will now head into the fall with a quarterback battle between senior transfer Joey Aguilar, redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger, and true freshman George MacIntyre.
At the end of the day, these rankings hardly matter in July. There are still so many things that will shake out and unfold between now and the start of the season, plus all the action that the regular season has to offer.
Here’s a look at Tennessee’s latest betting odds with SEC Media Days around the corner and fall training camp less than a month away:
