The SEC released its preseason predictions last week to close media days the conference’s media pegged Tennessee to finish ninth in the 16-team SEC.
It’s the lowest the media has predicted Tennessee to finish since Josh Heupel’s first season at the helm. After losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the portal and the Vols having a number of other questions about their offense, expectations are low for Heupel’s fifth team in Knoxville.
But Tennessee has frequently overachieved compared to the preseason media poll in recent years. Comparing how the Vols finished to their preseason projections in Heupel’s first four years as head coach.
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2024
Preseason prediction: Seventh
Season result: 10-3 (6-2 SEC). Finished T-2nd. 3rd after tiebreaker
Tennessee suffered an upset loss at Arkansas but earned crucial home wins against Florida and Alabama to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Vols finished tied for second in the SEC with Georgia but the Bulldogs win in Athens gave Georgia the tiebreaker and trip to Atlanta. Tennessee finished ahead of LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri who were all picked ahead of them.
2023
Preseason prediction: Second in East
Season result: 9-4 (4-4 SEC), Finished 3rd in the SEC East
Coming off its resurgent 2022 season, the media picked Tennessee to finish second in the SEC East behind only Georgia. The Vols didn’t free fall in 2023 but did underachieve, posting a 4-4 conference record with a home loss against Georgia and road losses at Florida, Alabama and Missouri. The Tigers jumped Tennessee and finished second in the SEC East.
2022
Preseason prediction: Third in East
Season result: 11-2 (6-2 SEC), Finished 2nd in SEC East
There was cautious optimism for Tennessee entering Heupel’s second season at the helm but the Vols blew past them, jumping out to an 8-0 start and climbing to No. 1 in the CFP rankings. A road loss at future national champion Georgia wasn’t unexpected, but an upset loss at South Carolina ended Tennessee’s CFP hopes. The Vols rebounded without the injured Hendon Hooker to defeat Vanderbilt and knock off Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
2021
Preseason prediction: Fifth in East
Season result: 7-6 (4-4 SEC), Finished 3rd in SEC East
There was no momentum around the Tennessee program entering Heupel’s first season as head coach and the Vols got off to a slow start with losses against Pittsburgh and Florida in September. But blowout wins over Missouri and Ole Miss brought much needed juice back into the program. The Vols lost to Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia but earned a ranked win at Kentucky and took care of Vanderbilt at home. The Vols finished behind Georgia and Kentucky in the SEC East but jumped Florida and Missouri who were each picked ahead of Tennessee in the preseason.
