Tennessee football has had a tumultuous offseason but there remains reason for optimism as the Vols enter their fifth season under head coach Josh Heupel. The Vols made the 12-team College Football Playoffs a season ago and while they’re not projected to make it again this season, it is still a possibility.
What are the most important games on Tennessee’s 2025 schedule? Ranking them from least to most important here.
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12. ETSU
Tennessee faces instate foe ETSU in its home opener in the second week of the season. The Bucs are in their first season under head coach Will Healy and should present little resistance for Tennessee.
The only path to thinking this will be more competitive than suggested is that it’s the week before the Georgia game. But Josh Heupel’s teams consistently bulldoze overmatched small schools. ETSU being the Vols’ lone FCS opponent of this season helps earn it the No. 12 spot.
11. New Mexico State
Tennessee hosts New Mexico State in its homecoming game the third week of November. The Vols do play the Aggies a week before a massive game at Florida but the open date the week prior should minimize the look ahead concerns.
New Mexico State also is the second lowest rated FBS team in ESPN’s College Football Power Index entering the season.
10. UAB
UAB comes to Neyland Stadium a week after Tennessee hosts Georgia. An upset win over the Bulldogs probably makes this game a bit harder but even then, it’s not harder than any SEC game or Syracuse.
The Blazers showed some life the back half of last season, but Trent Dilfer’s third UAB team still doesn’t project to be any sort of contenders in the American next season.
9. Vanderbilt
Diego Pavia can add this to the bulletin board but I’m just not buying Vanderbilt entering next season. The Commodores flamed out the back half of last season and I’m banking on a year of tape and no longer being able to creep up on people leading to at least a slight step back for the Commodores.
There’s an argument to be made that this game should be as high as seven on this list, but Tennessee getting Vanderbilt at home as opposed to neutral site or on the road— like the next two games— leads to this one being lower on the list. And if Tennessee is a win away from the College Football Playoff than the Vols should be fully dialed in for this game.
8. Syracuse (Atlanta)
Tennessee’s toughest non conference game this season comes in the opener. Syracuse turned major heads in its first season under Fran Brown but projects to take a major step back after losing star quarterback Kyle McCord and a number of other contributors.
Making the argument for a Syracuse update would involve Tennessee breaking in so much new talent and potentially a quarterback that joined the team after spring. But the Orange are in the same boat, adding Notre Dame transfer quarterback Steve Angeli out of the spring portal window.
7. at Kentucky
Tennessee has had a problem dropping games on the road that it shouldn’t under Josh Heupel. The Kentucky and Mississippi State games are the two I’d point to this season that are the most troublesome in that category. And this game could not be in more of a trap spot, directly between a trip to Alabama and a home game against Oklahoma.
But things seem to be trending in the wrong direction for Mark Stoops program and Tennessee has had nothing but success against the Wildcats under Josh Heupel and long before that.
6. Arkansas
Tennessee will have revenge on its mind when Arkansas comes to Neyland Stadium the second weekend of October. I’m higher than most on Arkansas entering this season and could see the Razorbacks’ offense being really solid in Taylen Green’s second season as starting quarterback.
But Tennessee has been elite at home under Josh Heupel and get the Razorbacks coming off a bye. This keeps this game from being higher on the list.
5. at Mississippi State
This is the road trap game that worries me for Tennessee. Mississippi State was the SEC’s worst team last season but its offense showed flashes throughout the season and gets quarterback Blake Shapen back after he suffered a season-ending injury in September last season.
If the Bulldogs defense, which was truly dreadful last season, shows any life than this could easily be a competitive game that Tennessee will have to survive. It’s also currently in a flex spot between night and afternoon, so the environment could be pretty amped.
4. at Alabama
There’s a divide between 5-12 and 1-4 on this list. If Tennessee is going to make the playoffs, they have to beat everyone we’ve already discussed. There’s some leeway on the final four games. Tennessee just needs to win two of those games.
The Alabama game is the hardest of the final four games, in my opinion. There’s certainly an argument for the Georgia game but Tennessee having to go to Tuscaloosa makes it a tougher task.
3. Georgia
Georgia has had Tennessee’s number and is the only team that’s won in Neyland Stadium the last three years. The Bulldogs do seem a bit more vulnerable this season, breaking in starting quarterback Gunnar Stockton and a defensive line that may not be as dominant as those we’ve seen in past seasons.
Still, this is going to be an incredibly tough game that I’m very skeptical about Tennessee winning. If they do pull the upset, it completely changes the dynamic of the season.
2. Oklahoma
This is the easiest game in these final four and one Tennessee also probably needs to win if it’s going to get back to the playoffs. There’s a lot of preseason buzz around Oklahoma quarterback John Matear and he will probably dictate how good the Sooners will be this season.
Oklahoma’s offense was dreadful last season but its defense was legit and should be legit again this season. The game being at Neyland Stadium is a huge advantage but it’s also Tennessee’s fourth game in four weeks and comes right before its second open date of the season.
1. at Florida
For years, Florida was Tennessee’s first real test of the season. This year, the Vols head to Gainesville the second to last week of the season and if they enter the game with two losses then a spot in the playoff will be on the line.
There’s plenty of hype around Florida entering the season and Benn Hill Griffin Stadium has been a house of horrors for Tennessee. But Nov. 22 is a long time away. Let’s see where Florida is at when that game goes around. And maybe Gainesville in November will be kinder to Tennessee than Gainesville in September has.
