Tennessee kicks off its 2025 football season against Syracuse in just 15 days. With kickoff nearing, ESPN’s Billy Connelly released his updated SP+ rankings ahead of the season. Interestingly, Tennessee football moved up one-spot from his post spring practice rankings.
The Vols landed at No. 12 in the final SP+ preseason rankings after coming in at No. 13 in the post spring update. Tennessee jumped Miami who fell from No. 12 to No. 14.
Josh Heupel’s fifth Tennessee team is the sixth highest rated SEC team in the rankings, coming in behind No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 5 Texas, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 11 LSU. Interestingly, Tennessee is ranked higher than a number of teams with more preseason buzz including No. 13 Texas A&M, No. 15 Oklahoma, No. 16 Florida and No. 17 South Carolina.
The expectations around Tennessee have been lower entering the season after losing quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal, and the Vols’ passing game looking like it’s going to be a weakness again this season. But the SP+ rankings are higher on Tennessee which is interesting because of the unique model it has for how it ranks teams.
Connelly’s SP+ is not a subjective ranking but uses a formula to rank every FBS team. Its exact formula is unclear but it uses three main factors— returning production, recent recruiting, recent history— to rank college football teams.
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Quarterback play typically doesn’t sway Connelly’s rankings as much as it does human rankings. That, in large part, is why teams like Texas, LSU and Oklahoma— whose quarterbacks enter the season with an abundance of buzz— are lower in Connelly’s rankings than others.
The SP+ projects Tennessee football to have the nation’s 33rd best offense and fourth best defense entering the season. While there’s much more positivity around the Vols’ defense than offense entering the year, it still feels more difficult for the defense to live up to that high billing compared to the modest projection for Heupel’s offense.
Connelly’s model predicts Tennessee to win 8.9 regular season games, saying it’s more likely that the Vols go 9-3 than 8-4. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Vols’ over/under regular season win total at 8.5 with betters able to get better odds on the over hitting than the under.
Tennessee’s relatively easy schedule is a major plus entering the season. The Vols face No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia but the rest of the schedule is incredibly manageable with matchups against No. 15 Oklahoma, No. 16 Florida, No. 34 Arkansas, No. 44 Kentucky, No. 54 Vanderbilt, No. 55 Syracuse and No. 66 Mississippi State.
Tennessee came in at No. 18 in the Preseason USA Today Coaches Poll and No. 24 in the Preseason AP Poll. The league’s media picked the Vols’ to finish ninth in the conference this season.
