Week 1 in the college football landscape isn’t over quite yet, but the weekend did provide all the “welcome back” action that fans were hoping for. You had Top 10 non-conference matchups going down to the wire, transfer portal additions making their debuts with new teams, and freshman players rising to the challenge in their first game.
But through all of those happenings across the weekend, perhaps no game was talked about more online than No. 8 Alabama’s road loss to unranked Florida State on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee. While the Crimson Tide jumped out to a 7-0 lead to start the game, the Seminoles ended up outscoring their SEC opponent 31-10 over the remainder of the game to pick up the victory.
Alabama’s loss started a storm on social media as fans and analysts criticized the Crimson Tide’s performance on both sides of the ball.
The loss was also enough to shift things around in ESPN’s Football Power Index metrics. Alabama dropped 10 spots in ESPN’s FPI rankings, which is a list based on simulations that “is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.” The Tide dropped from No. 3 to No. 13 on the list.
Tennessee, meanwhile, stayed put at No. 8 in the FPI rankings after its 45-26 win over Syracuse in Atlanta on Saturday.
With the shift in the computer metrics, ESPN Analytics now has Tennessee favored against the Crimson Tide in an early projection for this year’s Third Saturday in October game on Oct. 18 in Tuscaloosa. Tennessee is given a 52.7% chance, while Alabama has a 47.3% chance.
These projections are by no means an indication of what will happen in that rivalry contest. There are still 47 days until that game is played, after all. But it does show that even during Alabama’s underwhelming showing against Florida State on Saturday, Tennessee still impressed the computer model with its win over Syracuse.
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College football is a week-by-week sport. If you start looking too far ahead at projections and rankings, you’re sure to get burned at some point. Teams that looked good in the opening week might not sustain that through the season, while teams that didn’t may put the pieces together after a gut-wrenching performance to start the year.
But it is an interesting note coming out of the first weekend of the college football slate.
Alabama is still a heavy favorite at this point, though. The Crimson Tide are an early point favorite over the Vols with the dust settling from the Week 1 slate. Again, it’s still too early to be looking into these things to try to project the game, but they are interesting to note nonetheless.
Tennessee put up nearly 50 points on Syracuse this past Saturday thanks to some scoring fireworks. Debuting quarterback Joey Aguilar tossed three touchdowns and 247 yards through the air, while Tennessee’s run game did its part to keep the chains moving and give the Vols some explosive plays throughout the game. Tennessee ended up with an extremely balanced offensive day, going for 247 yards through the air and 248 yards on the ground. While fighting through multiple starter injuries, Tennessee’s defense also put up a touchdown with a Colton Hood scoop-and-score in the first half.
Tennessee will host ETSU in its home opener this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET in Neyland Stadium. Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for live, on-site coverage of the game on Saturday afternoon in Knoxville.
