The Opponent: East Tennessee State University traces its roots back to 1911, founded as the East Tennessee State Normal School. They went through a few name iterations before officially becoming ETSU in 1963. The school played football from 1920 through 2004. The sport was disbanded for a decade before returning in 2015. ETSU has been competing in the SoCon conference since 2016 and has made the FCS Playoffs twice in the past decade. The Bucs are coached by Will Healy, in his first season in Johnson City. Despite only being 40, Healy is already on his third stop as a head coach. He burst onto the scene by revitalizing a dead Austin Peay program. His next stop at Charlotte was not as successful. Now the Chattanooga native finds himself back in the Volunteer State and will look to grow ETSU into an FCS contender.
Are they any good?: The Bucs are coming off a 7-5 season, 5-3 in the SoCon conference. Former coach Tre Lamb bolted to Tulsa after just one season in Johnson City. Will Healy steps into his place. ETSU is 1-0 on the season after an impressive 45-17 win over Murray State last weekend, earning the Bucs a spot in the FCS Top 25 rankings. ETSU ran the ball down the Racers’ throats to the tune of 55 carries for 395 yards. That was a whopping 7.18 yards per carry, led by Devontae Houston with over 9 yards per carry. Former Michigan and Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara was impressive in his FCS debut, completing 12 of 17 passes for 146 yards. Former UNC QB Jacoby Chiswell gave the Bucs a dual-threat look in the backfield as well. It will be interesting to see how Will Healy divides the QB reps between his two high-profile transfers this weekend.
What will this tell us about the Vols?: It will tell us something about Tennessee’s freshmen class, as well as the Vols’ overall depth. If Tennessee shows up ready to play, then this game should offer a good chance to rotate a lot of bodies into the game. Tennessee actually got 14 freshmen into the Syracuse game, and they’d like to exceed that number on Saturday. As a reminder, players can play in 4 games and still be eligible for a redshirt. In the transfer portal era, it is also important to keep young players engaged as much as possible. The Vols particularly need to see more bodies rotated through at receiver, defensive line, and secondary. The depth of those latter two units is already being tested. Saturday will tell us about long term depth across the board for the Vols.
What does Vegas say?: Las Vegas is mum on this game, which is not uncommon when Power 4 teams play FCS opponents. I can’t find a posted betting line anywhere, but admittedly have not scoured the dark web just yet. Looking back to last season, Tennessee was -38.5 versus UTC and -49 versus Kent State. If I were setting a line for this game, it would be somewhere in between those two lines. Let’s say Vols -41.5.
Matchup to watch on Offense?: The short and intermediate throws. Joey Aguilar played superbly overall in his Tennessee debut. It is tough to find much to complain about, but we can try. One area where the quarterback was not quite as sharp was some short and intermediate throws, notably a few perimeter passes. That very well could have been first game adrenaline. That is something Tennessee can tighten up on Saturday, though. Missing those short throws altogether can really hamper drives against quality opponents. Off target completions can also limit his receivers’ ability for YAC, something Joey Halzle noted in the media this week. Aguilar needs to continue developing chemistry with his new receivers, and putting them in position to make plays after the catch. Regardless of how competitive Saturday’s game becomes, Tennessee’s season gets very real next weekend with Georgia coming to town. The Vols will need a crisp passing attack to move the ball against the Dawgs.
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Matchup to watch on Defense?: The secondary rotation. The Vols were dealt a sizeable blow earlier this week with the news that corner Rickey Gibson III will be out for an extended period of time. It is fair to assume Jermod McCoy won’t be back for another few weeks, so Tennessee already finds itself down its top two corners. In their place, transfer Colton Hood and freshman Ty Redmond played really well in Atlanta last weekend. That is very promising for Tim Banks’ unit, but also begs the question of what the rotation looks like now behind those two. Boo Carter’s shadow looms large over this entire secondary. The mercurial sophomore played limited snaps against Syracuse, but is 100% healthy. Outside of being one of Tennessee’s best playmakers, Boo’s full return would allow Jalen McMurray to play some corner as well. Tennessee needs that flexibility with Gibson & McCoy out. Elsewhere, it is a big opportunity for young corners in Tim Merritt, Tre Poteat, and Dylan Lewis. Merritt & Poteat saw the field last weekend, but Lewis did not. They join veteran William Wright as stop gaps at the cornerback position if Tennessee’s depth is further tested. Expect to see a lot of bodies rotate through the defensive backfield on Saturday. The Vols need some young players to show they can be trusted in case of emergency.
Fun Fact: These teams last met in September of 2018, Jeremy Pruitt’s inaugural win at Tennessee. The Vols won 59-3. Tennessee hit the trifecta that game; scoring touchdowns on offense, defense, and special teams. It was the first touchdown in Orange for VFL Keller Chryst, and the only career touchdown for VFL Jordan Murphy. Marquill Osborne blocked a punt for a touchdown, arguably the highlight of his Tennessee career. Osborne currently serves as a tire changer for Joe Gibbs Racing on the NASCAR circuit. In 2018 though, he was a future crown jewel of Jeremy Pruitt’s revamped defense. That ETSU game was unfortunately one of the few high points of the 2018 season. It’s a good reminder that even the darkest days can produce a little sunshine.
So what happens?: On paper, this should be a fireworks-heavy home opener for Tennessee. Josh Heupel has done a really good job burying FCS opponents inside Neyland Stadium, the lone exception being a sleepy 30-13 win over Austin Peay in 2023. That game came after a big opening win over Virginia in Nashville, and right before a pivotal trip to Gainesville. That would be the only worry here. Are the Vols looking ahead to Georgia next weekend? That should not affect the end result of this game, but could factor into the margin of victory. Expect for Tennessee to heavily rotate again on defense. When you net out the sack yardage, Syracuse rushed for a respectable 3.5 yards per carry against Tennessee last weekend. That is not overly concerning, but Tennessee needs to play sound defense against a Bucs team that nearly rushed for 400 yards last weekend. I expect that to be the case. Even a rotated defensive front will give the Vols a healthy push against an FCS offensive line. As the running game falters for ETSU, Cade McNamara will be less effective as a drop back QB. Look for more Jacoby Chiswell from the Bucs as this game goes along. Will Healy will try to use Chiswell’s legs to extend drives, and work ETSU into scoring positions. On offense, Tennessee will have plenty of success in the run game. It will be worth watching David Sanders Jr inserted into the rotation. The Volunteer line looked fine without him against Syracuse, but tougher challenges await. Tennessee needs to get Sanders live game reps before SEC play. I would otherwise expect more of the same offensive approach as we saw last weekend, and with similar success. The Volunteers will be flirting with 30 points by half time, and quickly put this game away by midway through the 3rd quarter. Both Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre will get playing time in this game. It will hard to judge much with either given the opponent or situation, but that won’t stop fans from trying. Tennessee won’t play perfect, and the Bucs will find the end zone twice, but it will end up as a comfortable win. That’s the main goal, with no more injuries being a close second.
Vols 51, Bucs 14
