Following Tennessee football’s dominant 72-17 win over ETSU on Saturday, the Vols jumped up to No. 15 in both the AP and Coaches Polls. However, in ESPN’s analytics-based FPI rankings, the Vols tumbled a spot down the board. UT went from No. 8 to No. 9 after Alabama, of all teams, surged in front.
The Tide went into the week at No. 13. After dominating UL Monroe, they leaped all the way up to No. 4. This pushed back primarily Georgia, Penn State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Notre Dame. In the case of the Bulldogs, who the Vols will host this weekend, they dropped from No. 2 to No. 6 after a shaky win over Austin Peay.
Tennessee’s positioning at No. 9 is the fifth-best in the SEC. The Vols are only behind Texas (No. 2), Alabama (No. 4), Georgia (No. 6) and Ole Miss (No. 8). Behind Tennessee are Auburn (No. 11), Missouri (No. 13), Texas A&M (No. 15), LSU (No. 16), Arkansas (No. 19), South Carolina (No. 21), Oklahoma (No. 23) and Florida (No. 24).
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ESPN’s FPI also gives percent chances for teams to reach different milestones on the season. In the case of Tennessee, it gives the Vols a 99.8% chance to get to six wins and reach a bowl game. Overall, it has Tennessee at a projected record of 9.5-2.8 with a 2.1% chance to win out and go undefeated.
To win the SEC, FPI gives the Vols a 12.5% chance. This is only behind Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. After UT, it’s a significant drop-off from 12.5% down to 2.7% for Auburn.
FPI also likes Tennessee’s chances to make the playoffs. That’s listed at 53%. To make the national title game is at 11.1% with a 5.6% chance to hoist the trophy, as well.
The next test is against Georgia at home. The Vols will host the Bulldogs on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET with the game airing on ABC. ESPN’s College GameDay will be on campus, along with the stands being ‘checkered’ with ‘Checker Neyland’ going into effect.
