The Opponent: The University of Alabama was established as a seminary in 1820, one year after Alabama earned its statehood. The school was largely burned to the ground by Union troops in April of 1865, just days before Lee’s surrender at Appotomax. Alabama started playing football in 1892, and is another charter member of the Southeastern Conference. The Tide are now coached by Kalen DeBoer, in his second season in Tuscaloosa. A native of South Dakota, DeBoer won three NAIA National Championships at the University of Sioux Falls. This weekend will be his second meeting with Josh Heupel on the Third Saturday of October, a southern tradition being led by two native sons of the Mount Rushmore State.
Are they any good?: Yes, Alabama is yet again a good football team. After a shocking opening season loss in Tallahassee, “Kalen DeBoer’s buyout” was the most popular Google search in the state of Alabama. A lot can change in six weeks, though, as the Tide are once again rolling. Alabama has defeated three straight Top 20 opponents, and finds itself in familiar territory atop the SEC standings. This probably isn’t a Saban-era Alabama team, but that bar may never be reached again. The 2025 Crimson Tide look poised to compete for both the SEC and National Championship, though.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Saturday will tell us how serious of a contender the Vols are for the college football playoffs. With a win in Tuscaloosa, Tennessee would have very favorable odds to make the playoffs for the second straight year. A loss would not totally disqualify Tennessee, but would likely require a 5-0 finish. It is another big test for the Tennessee defense, who despite having 37 combined sacks and takeaways, look like a shell of the 2024 unit.
Injury watch: Any hopes of Jermod McCoy’s return were dashed Wednesday night, as Tennessee’s All-American cornerback remains OUT. Desean Bishop’s status was listed as PROBABLE, after Tennessee’s starting running back tweaked his ankle against Arkansas. For Alabama, all eyes will be on Jam Miller, their starting running back. Miller suffered a concussion after a vicious hit against Missouri. His status was listed as QUESTIONABLE on Wednesday night, as he goes through concussion protocol. Miller has easily been Alabama’s most productive runner in SEC play, after missing the start of the season with a shoulder injury.
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What does Vegas say?: This line opened at Alabama -8.5 on Sunday, and mostly stayed there all week. The consensus Over/Under is 58.5. This is the fourth straight matchup between these teams with a single-digit spread. That is after years of very large numbers. Tennessee is now 3-3 ATS on the season, but 1-0 as an underdog. Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS. This will be the highest Over / Under of any Alabama game this season so far.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Play cleaner football. Through three SEC games, Tennessee is averaging over 73 penalty yards per game. The Vols have been flagged 26 times in conference play. Compare that to just 12 penalties for Alabama over the same sample size. The Vols need to be especially mindful of pre-snap infractions when playing on the road Saturday night. Alabama’s defense is only allowing SEC opponents to convert 26.67% of third downs, second to only Texas A&M’s absurd number (6.06%) in conference play. Tennessee can not shoot itself in the foot Saturday night, and expect to pull off the upset. The Vols have been rushing the ball well in SEC play, 4.91 yards per carry and 173 yards per game. This is an Alabama defense giving up a surprising 6.56 yards per carry in SEC play. Tennessee has a chance to take advantage of the Tide on the ground, but only if it stays ahead of the sticks. Playing clean football in Tuscaloosa will be a good first step in that direction.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Get off the field. In its three conference games, Tennessee is allowing its opponents to convert on 47% of third downs. Last week alone, Arkansas was able to convert 8 out of 11 attempts of 3rd and 6+ yards. Alabama is first in the SEC in terms of Time of Possession, at over 37 minutes. Tennessee is dead last at just under 25 minutes. That is not unusual for a Josh Heupel team, but the Vols will continue to feel the cumulative effects until they are able to improve on 3rd down. Tennessee’s defense is giving up 458 yards per game in SEC, 14th in the conference. Yards per play is a little more respectable at 5.53, or 9th in the SEC. Alabama’s defense is actually giving up 6.23 yards per play, but only 338 yards per game. The difference? The Tide defense has been on the field for 86 fewer snaps through just three conference games, almost 29 fewer plays per game. Tennessee’s defense has to get off the field on third down Saturday night.
Fun Fact: It has been 22 years since Tennessee last won in Tuscaloosa, a fact that is not too fun for most Tennessee fans. The last Volunteer quarterback to win at Alabama was the Iceman, Casey Clausen. Clausen’s QB sneak in the 5th overtime of that game helped ice the Tide in one of the longest games of this rivalry’s history. It was one of Clausen’s 14 wins as a starter on the road in the SEC, compared to just one loss.
So what happens?: To win on Saturday night, Tennessee has to find a way to get Ty Simpson out of rhythm. The Tennessee native patiently waited for his turn at Alabama, and so far, his patience has been rewarded. Through three SEC games, Simpson is completing 70% of his passes for 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Clinical is the best word to describe Simpson’s play thus far. Alabama has given up nine sacks through three conference games, and they’re going up against a Tennessee pass rush averaging five sacks per game in conference play. The Vols need to try to create an advantage there. The Tide have been shuffling some guys around on the offensive line. A lot of eyes will be on right tackle, where talented freshman Michael Carroll is looking to overtake Wilkin Formby. If Alabama can give Simpson time to operate, then his receivers are clearly excited about the matchup versus Tennessee’s secondary. That certainly should worry the Vols as Alabama has three big-time playmakers on the perimeter in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton.
Offensively, Tennessee would do well to continue its strong pass protection. Keeping Joey Aguilar upright has been a big part of Tennessee’s offensive resurgence. Once upright, Aguilar would be wise to find #17 Chris Brazzell II. Brazzell’s otherworldly production took a major step back last week, with just one catch for 5 yards against Arkansas. Tennessee needs a few splash plays from #17 to keep this game interesting. Otherwise, don’t be surprised to see Joey Aguilar more involved in the run game Saturday night. Tennessee will look to establish its presence on the ground by any means necessary. The Vols probably need to outrush the Tide to have a chance in this game, and that is especially true if Jam Miller can’t go.
We are at the midway point of the season. At this point, teams are usually whatever the tape shows on them. Unfortunately, the tape shows Tennessee’s defense is not a very consistent unit. I don’t think the Vols can bank on multiple turnovers from Alabama Saturday night, especially considering the Tide only have two on the entire season. The Vol defense will need to create real stops, and I don’t think they can do that enough. The Vols will pressure Ty Simpson, and even force one turnover from the Tide. That won’t be enough, as Simpson picks apart the Tennessee secondary the rest of the game. Tennessee’s offense moves the ball fairly well, but fails to capitalize enough in the Red Zone. Alabama 35, Tennessee 24
