The Opponent: Vanderbilt University was founded in 1873, named after benefactor Cornelius Vanderbilt. The school has been playing football since 1890, and is yet another charter member of the SEC. The school has several conference and national titles, but none since Hoover popularized the home vacuum cleaner in 1926. Vanderbilt is coach by Nashville native Clark Lea, a Vanderbilt graduate and one of the hottest coaches of the 2025 carousel season. Lea is 10-29 overall in the SEC, but 5-2 on the season this year.
Are they any good?: Yes, Vanderbilt sits at 9-2 on the season. They are certainly a good football team. With a win in Knoxville on Saturday, this year’s Commodores have a real claim to make as the best Vanderbilt team of the modern era. A win over Tennessee would likely constitute Vandy’s best win of the season, which is part of the reason they find themselves on the outside looking in on the college football playoff race. The ‘Dores were a few turnovers away from maybe winning in Tuscaloosa though, and had a furious comeback fall just short in Austin. This is certainly a good team.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Last weekend’s performance in the Swamp showed the Volunteers are still dialed in to close the season. Focus or effort should not be a question on Saturday. It is a rare opportunity for Tennessee to play spoiler to Vanderbilt, the opposite of last season’s game. How big of a motivator is that for the Vols? This game will also help shape the pecking order in the SEC going into 2026. With a win, Tennessee can still claim to be in the upper third of the conference. A loss would mean a 4-4 conference record for the Vols, and a pesky Vanderbilt program claiming its first state title since 2018.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened up at Tennessee -3.5, and now sits at -2.5 at most books. That line would suggest this game would be a Pick ‘Em on a neutral field, with Vandy possibly a slight favorite. The Over / Under sits around 65.5, the highest total since Tennessee’s game against Arkansas. The Vols are now 5-6 ATS on the season this year, including 3-4 in SEC games. Vanderbilt is an impressive 9-2 ATS this season, including 2-2 outright as an underdog. This is the highest point total of any Vanderbilt game this season by a healthy margin.
Injury Report: For Tennessee, senior tight end Miles Kitselman remains OUT. In his absence, Ethan Davis had a great game in the Swamp. Running back Peyton Lewis remains QUESTIONABLE after not playing in Gainesville. Vanderbilt remains largely unscathed in terms of the injury bug.
More From RTI: College Football Host Predicts ‘Magic’ To Happen in Neyland Stadium For Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Matchup to watch on Offense: Finish drives. On paper, neither of these defenses do much to impress you. That game total of 65.5 reinforces that notion. This game features two very dynamic quarterbacks going against two suspect secondaries. It is too much to ask either defense to keep this a low-scoring affair. That means this game probably comes down to turnovers and finishing drives in the Red Zone. Vanderbilt’s defense has been strong in the Red Zone this season. They are allowing touchdowns on just 44% of their opponents’ trips in SEC play. Only Alabama has a better percentage on the season. Tennessee’s Red Zone offense is middle of the pack in SEC play. The Vols often bypass the Red Zone all together. There will be opportunities on Saturday for those splash plays. This is a Vanderbilt defense that has given up a lot of them. In a close game though, can Tennessee finish a drive on a compressed field? That will be a key to Saturday’s game.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Stop the big play. In the month of November, no SEC team has more splash passing plays than Vanderbilt. The Commodores have 50 completions of 10+ yards and 18 of 20+ yards. That is over just three games. It is a pretty stark contrast to what we had seen from this Vanderbilt offense through October, and even last season. Clark Lea realized that to be an elite team, sometimes you have to win in a shootout. The ‘Dores have shown the ability to just that, especially in a recent overtime win versus Auburn. Tre Richardson has emerged as a big-play receiver for Vanderbilt, and tight end Eli Stowers continues to be one of the biggest mismatches in the SEC. Tennessee can’t give up the big plays on Saturday. A lot obviously starts with disciplined coverage in the backend for Tennessee, but getting pressure is paramount for the Vols. Given time, Pavia will make plays for Vandy. The Vols have to contain the Heisman hopeful, and they have to drop Pavia when they get hands on him. Otherwise, Vanderbilt is a real threat in the downfield passing game come November.
Fun Fact: I spent too much time eating and drinking (mostly drinking) around family this weekend, and therefore did not find us a fun fact. When is the last time both these teams were ranked inside the Top 20 though? Someone look that up. If you’ve read this far, then you can’t keep too busy a schedule.
So what happens?: All signs point to an epic quarterback duel, carving up suspect secondaries in route to a shootout game. That very well may be what we get. For Tennessee’s defense, this entire game comes down to containing Diego Pavia. Pavia has been on a tear in November. He is trying to single-handedly drag Vanderbilt into the college football playoffs, and himself into the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. The Vols are averaging 3.5 sacks and 7.0 TFL’s playing in Neyland Stadium this season. Vanderbilt has done a very good job protecting Diego Pavia this season, but those numbers have spiked up recently. Pavia has been sacked 11 times in three games this month. It’s possible that is just a byproduct of taking more downfield shots, but nonetheless Tennessee has to get after Pavia to limit the Commodores downfield passing game. The Vols also have to contain Pavia, a real threat with his legs. Vanderbilt is one of the SEC’s best third-down offenses, largely due to Pavia’s dual-threat nature.
The Vols’ offense has had a lot of success against Vanderbilt in recent years. The rushing yardage is what has been really impressive in this series as of late. Josh Heupel’s offense is averaging over 250 yards on the ground against Clark Lea’s defense since 2021. How much does Clark Lea elect to defend the Vols with a light box on Saturday? Given the recent history, I am not sure Vanderbilt can afford to do that on a regular basis. I am guessing Lea would rather take his chances forcing Joey Aguilar into a turnover than seeing the Vols routinely rush for 5+ yards a carry. That will certainly create opportunities downfield for the Vols if Aguilar can find them. Tennessee has the playmakers to take advantage of a Vanderbilt secondary that has allowed 83 passing plays of 10+ yards in SEC play.
Over the past four seasons, Tennessee has had a lot of success against Clark Lea’s defense. The Vols have averaged over 525 yards against Vanderbilt since 2021, and scored over 46 points per game on average. How much bearing does that have on Saturday’s contest? Maybe it won’t mean much. In a game where anything could happen, I will rely on what I have seen happen though. Tennessee’s defense makes just enough stops playing behind a strong home crowd. Both quarterbacks play well, but Aguilar has more playmakers at his disposal. That’s the difference. Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 31.
