Tennessee basketball is back in the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season, looking to clinch its third straight trip to the Elite Eight as they prepare to face two-seed Iowa State on Friday night in Chicago. The Cyclones have been one of the top teams in the country all season and are looking to advance even though they may be without star Joshua Jefferson.
Here are the RTI staff predictions for the opening round NCAA Tournament matchup.
Ric Butler
Rick Barnes has Tennessee back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in the last four seasons. This one is a bit different, though. With Tennessee being the 6-seed, it had to upset a higher-seed in the first weekend for the first time in that run.
Before the Virginia game, I wrote about wondering which of Tennessee’s role players would step up to supplement Ja’Kobi Gillespie’s game. Obviously, Nate Ament is a huge factor, but his injury makes production tougher to predict. As it would turn out, it was Bishop Boswell hitting three triples in the first 16 minutes, as well as Jaylen Carey and JP Estrella combining for 20 points. I have the same question for this game – We know Gillespie is going to get his, and anything that Ament will provide will be big. But which of Tennessee’s other players can step up? Okpara? Boswell? Estrella?
The other two things that we’ve seen correlate to Tennessee’s wins and losses are turnovers and free throws. The Vols don’t want to be fighting an uphill battle because of either of those. The status for Iowa State injured forward Joshua Jefferson is also a huge thing to note leading up to the game.
Much has been said about the physicality and toughness that’ll be required for both sides in this game. We’ve seen it from Tennessee all year, but it was especially evident last weekend. I picked Tennessee over Virginia, and I have the same nervous urge to do the same this weekend.
Prediction: Tennessee 70, Iowa State 68
Ryan Schumpert
This is a tough one to predict because of the uncertain status of Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson. The Cyclones list Jefferson as questionable but even if he plays, it seems quite unlikely that he would be anywhere close to 100%. Maybe this is unwise of me, but I’m not anticipating Jefferson being able to do much of anything in this one.
That makes this game a lot more manageable for Tennessee. If the Vols can force Iowa State to play in the half court then they can keep Okpara in a shot blocking position. When Okpara is able to defend the rim, Tennessee’s two-point defense is pretty stout. The Cyclones have struggled in games they have shot less than 50% from two-point range this season.
Offensively, Tennessee needs to capitalize on its size advantage down low. They need to control the offensive glass and find production from JP Estrella and the rest of the front line. But no key is more important for Tennessee than taking care of the basketball. The Cyclones force turnovers at an extremely high rate. Tennessee is prone to have turnover issues. If the Vols take care of the basketball and force Iowa State to play in the half court then they have a strong chance to pull off the upset.
This one feels a bit like a toss up, but I’ll bet on Jefferson not playing (at least much) and Tennessee advancing to the Elite Eight for a third straight season.
Prediction: Tennessee 71, Iowa State 70
